Comments on: Poll: No Movement on Proposition 8 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/08/28/2794 News, analysis and fact-checking of anti-gay rhetoric Thu, 23 May 2013 06:14:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: Mombian » Blog Archive » Weekly Political Update http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/08/28/2794/comment-page-1#comment-65422 Mombian » Blog Archive » Weekly Political Update Sat, 27 Mar 2010 01:05:43 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=2794#comment-65422 [...] poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to ban marriage of same-sex [...] [...] poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to ban marriage of same-sex [...]

]]> By: Timothy Kincaid http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/08/28/2794/comment-page-1#comment-16024 Timothy Kincaid Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:15:17 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=2794#comment-16024 I was unable to find Survey USA's methodology or confidence level. Further I noted that they surveyed "all adults" rather than registered voters or likely voters (very different groups in CA). I'm not too familiar with Survey USA, but from what I see I'm not very impressed nor likely to place much faith in their surveys. I was unable to find Survey USA’s methodology or confidence level. Further I noted that they surveyed “all adults” rather than registered voters or likely voters (very different groups in CA).

I’m not too familiar with Survey USA, but from what I see I’m not very impressed nor likely to place much faith in their surveys.

]]> By: L. Junius Brutus http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/08/28/2794/comment-page-1#comment-16023 L. Junius Brutus Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:01:37 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=2794#comment-16023 Actually, SurveyUSA has polled California a few times, the first time showing the proposition winning 52-36 (it was in the Breaking News section, and no longer available). One month after the decision, it showed the proposition winning 44-38%, even though 56% favored same-sex marriage (I have this one as a PDF). But SurveyUSA does poorly when it comes to propositions, it also predicted that California would pass the parental notification proposition in a landslide. But here's the trendline: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8098379d-ba5c-4c9b-9326-d29c3170ec03 I'm waiting for a new Field poll that includes the changes in the wording. I will be happy if it loses by 10% (45-55). I will be ecstatic if it loses by 20 (40-60). Actually, SurveyUSA has polled California a few times, the first time showing the proposition winning 52-36 (it was in the Breaking News section, and no longer available). One month after the decision, it showed the proposition winning 44-38%, even though 56% favored same-sex marriage (I have this one as a PDF). But SurveyUSA does poorly when it comes to propositions, it also predicted that California would pass the parental notification proposition in a landslide. But here’s the trendline: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8098379d-ba5c-4c9b-9326-d29c3170ec03

I’m waiting for a new Field poll that includes the changes in the wording. I will be happy if it loses by 10% (45-55). I will be ecstatic if it loses by 20 (40-60).

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