Comments on: Field Poll: Proposition 8 Very Close http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618 News, analysis and fact-checking of anti-gay rhetoric Thu, 18 Mar 2010 16:56:46 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: cowboy http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20996 cowboy Sat, 01 Nov 2008 17:41:08 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20996 Steve has remained mum on this issue. It is his wife who is opposed to the Proposition 8. But, I find a rather interesting read on the mormonsformarriage.com website especially the debate between two lawyers. There is much more internal strife with this issue than what we see in the news. Steve has remained mum on this issue. It is his wife who is opposed to the Proposition 8.

But, I find a rather interesting read on the mormonsformarriage.com website especially the debate between two lawyers. There is much more internal strife with this issue than what we see in the news.

]]> By: Chino Blanco http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20936 Chino Blanco Sat, 01 Nov 2008 09:15:18 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20936 I imagine everyone's seen this already, but here's the CBS5 report I uploaded to YouTube ... My Favorite Mormons: Steve & Barb Young Vote No on 8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akt908vnUT0 Now that the Youngs have come out publicly against Prop 8 (and donated $50K), I'm hoping it provides some cover for other Mormons to step up and publicly announce their opposition. I imagine everyone’s seen this already, but here’s the CBS5 report I uploaded to YouTube …

My Favorite Mormons: Steve & Barb Young Vote No on 8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akt908vnUT0

Now that the Youngs have come out publicly against Prop 8 (and donated $50K), I’m hoping it provides some cover for other Mormons to step up and publicly announce their opposition.

]]> By: Dan http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20891 Dan Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:32:49 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20891 If proposition 8 passes, the battle will only begin... First of all, the legality of prop 8 is in question since it does not amend the constitution but changes it. At the time that signatures were collected, the proposition (not yet having a number) was an amendment, but since the May 15th ruling it can be viewed a constitutional CHANGE. The process of a CHANGE to the constitution is vastly different than an amendment! If prop 8 succeeds and the above legal argument does not hold, then the process to reverse it will be a constitional change which requires much more than 50%. We better win this one! If proposition 8 passes, the battle will only begin…

First of all, the legality of prop 8 is in question since it does not amend the constitution but changes it. At the time that signatures were collected, the proposition (not yet having a number) was an amendment, but since the May 15th ruling it can be viewed a constitutional CHANGE. The process of a CHANGE to the constitution is vastly different than an amendment!

If prop 8 succeeds and the above legal argument does not hold, then the process to reverse it will be a constitional change which requires much more than 50%.

We better win this one!

]]> By: Kim http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20886 Kim Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:08:59 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20886 Plus, in CA, the only way to overturn an initiative constitutional amendment is by constitutional convention. We don't have the option of using a ballot measure in the future. There are three ways to reverse this if it succeeds, and neither are pretty options. 1. CA Constitutional convention 2. Federal Court challenge Plus, in CA, the only way to overturn an initiative constitutional amendment is by constitutional convention. We don’t have the option of using a ballot measure in the future.

There are three ways to reverse this if it succeeds, and neither are pretty options.

1. CA Constitutional convention
2. Federal Court challenge

]]> By: L. Junius Brutus http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20879 L. Junius Brutus Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:29:18 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20879 Cd, I think you're wrong. And here's why: it's much easier to convince people not to take away a right that's already there (the current situation). When you have to tell them to overturn the established order to give us equal protection, the 'conservative instinct' will work against us. If we can't win this year, it'll take a loooooong time. Cd, I think you’re wrong. And here’s why: it’s much easier to convince people not to take away a right that’s already there (the current situation). When you have to tell them to overturn the established order to give us equal protection, the ‘conservative instinct’ will work against us. If we can’t win this year, it’ll take a loooooong time.

]]> By: cd http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20878 cd Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:21:28 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20878 This is not an infallible method, but often you can predict an election outcome for things by finding the largest polling numbers for and against in respectable polling. If they add up to 100% then that's the split that will show up when all the ballots are counted. Field Poll suggests the two numbers are 55% vs 45%. The other pollster (PPI iirc) gets 52/48. All I really know is that if Prop 8 is passed, it will be by a small margin. Small enough that it can predictably be overturned in 2-4 years as American electorates everywhere trend in favor. And once electorates vote to permit legalization of gay marriage they just don't reverse themselves. So if No prevails by 50.1 to 49.9, that's it, even though the anti-SSM people will try again. The Yes On 8 people can't really win- they can only achieve delays. This is not an infallible method, but often you can predict an election outcome for things by finding the largest polling numbers for and against in respectable polling. If they add up to 100% then that’s the split that will show up when all the ballots are counted.

Field Poll suggests the two numbers are 55% vs 45%. The other pollster (PPI iirc) gets 52/48.

All I really know is that if Prop 8 is passed, it will be by a small margin. Small enough that it can predictably be overturned in 2-4 years as American electorates everywhere trend in favor. And once electorates vote to permit legalization of gay marriage they just don’t reverse themselves. So if No prevails by 50.1 to 49.9, that’s it, even though the anti-SSM people will try again. The Yes On 8 people can’t really win- they can only achieve delays.

]]> By: Tara TASW http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20871 Tara TASW Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:22:40 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20871 I just diaried about this over at dailykos. (Is "diary" a verb now?) http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/31/132715/00/828/648036 The most interesting part is the generational difference. Voters over age 65 are going 2-to-1 for Prop 8. ALL other age groups oppose Prop 8 by double digits. I hope we win this battle on Tuesday. but the generational trend is clear: we're going to win the war in the long run. -Tara the antisocial social worker I just diaried about this over at dailykos. (Is “diary” a verb now?)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/31/132715/00/828/648036

The most interesting part is the generational difference. Voters over age 65 are going 2-to-1 for Prop 8. ALL other age groups oppose Prop 8 by double digits.

I hope we win this battle on Tuesday. but the generational trend is clear: we’re going to win the war in the long run.

-Tara the antisocial social worker

]]> By: cowboy http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2008/10/31/5618/comment-page-1#comment-20865 cowboy Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:53:44 +0000 http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/?p=5618#comment-20865 There should definitely <b>not</b> be any publishing of the trend of the early votes. Much like they don't broadcast the early results in the national election to be fair to the still-to-vote voters in the Western States. In my totally unscientific survey (just from random comments from my co-workers) there are a majority voting early because they are fed up with the current status and they are passionate Obama supporters. I want to extrapolate they would be more likely to NOT vote for Proposition 8. Just a guess. I'll admit, the Mormons are probably the ones out there motivated to vote early. Damn their strident determination and drive! Almost Stepford-Wives-ish. There should definitely not be any publishing of the trend of the early votes. Much like they don’t broadcast the early results in the national election to be fair to the still-to-vote voters in the Western States.

In my totally unscientific survey (just from random comments from my co-workers) there are a majority voting early because they are fed up with the current status and they are passionate Obama supporters. I want to extrapolate they would be more likely to NOT vote for Proposition 8. Just a guess.

I’ll admit, the Mormons are probably the ones out there motivated to vote early. Damn their strident determination and drive! Almost Stepford-Wives-ish.

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