Let’s see if anyone is still excited to vote now that Obama isn’t on the ballot.

Sure, Western WA is more liberal and Eastern WA is more conservative…but keep in mind, these polls are conducted via LAND LINES. Who has those? Older voters. Who doesn’t use land lines? Younger voters. Whose being left out of these polls? Right. Younger voters.

In WA, voters under age 35 OVERWHELMINGLY support not just expanded DP benefits, but full same-sex marriage.

Doesn’t mean the fight has been won. Of course not. But Ref 71 proponents follow Maine’s early lead in strong, effective ads to counter the distortion and outright lies of the anti crowd, the results will be extremely favorable for the Ref 71 folks.

I predict Ref 71 will pass by over 60%.

During the Prop 8 campaign the polls were all over the place, though most showed it failing. But later we heard that inside polling showed both camps it would pass – but that this info was not shared.

I think this issue of the reliability of polls on DP rights would make for a good post.

The reason I am skeptical is that there is a consistent Bradley effect in all polling on DP or marriage. I recall that in 2006 when gays tried to put DP on the ballot in Colorado, polls showed it winning. But it lost 53-47.

I couldn’t recall the poll results, so I just googled it and saw that the Rocky Mountain News was showing it winning 58-42 in September 2006.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/0,2808,DRMN_24736_5004654,00.html

There either was a 11% Bradley effect or an 11% switch in support w/in 6 weeks of the poll. I submit it is the former, not the latter.

I really would like to see a poll asking about R71 specifically. Then we can work off of that to calculate the Bradley effect.

APPROVE Referendum 71. Gay couples deserve the exact rights heterosexual couples have.
https://www.upwardstech.net/
approvereferendum71

My prediction is, if this goes to the ballot, the pro-gay side will prevail, but by 51-53%. The 66-75% range shown in a lot of polls for domestic partnership will vanish like froth. The R71 folks will spin it as a victory, as a narrow approval for domestic partner rights indicates that any attempt at full marriage equality would fail at the ballot box.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009793500_poll_finds_support_for_same-se.html

Let’s try not to piss away a lead this time by letting the other team cheat with lies and not calling them on it.

This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. How are they statutory _requirements_ if in fact they aren’t even required?!?!??

I agree with Lindoro’s post above. However, our side will really need to make clear that the SoS does not have unfettered discretion to do as he pleases. All administrative agencies have inherent limits on the exercise of discretion, and there should be well-developed caselaw in WA to address this, even if it may not have involved the SoS specfically. I thought that was a great failing in the judge’s ruling. This is not as hard a point as she is making it out to be.