However, the answer to your third question is explained fully by the margin of error. According to probability theory, if the Field Poll had taken another simultaneous poll on the same day in 2008 as the on the actually had done using the same questions and same methods, but a different sample of some 1,700 people, the second sample in 2008 was just as likely to have come in at 49%. Conversely, a different sample in 2009 using the same questions and methods could have just as likely come to 51%. That’s what margins of error mean, which is why no statistician would ever conclude there was a measurable “drop” in support from 2008 to 2009. It’s also why the uncertainty of polls keep campaign managers up all night.

I think there is a distinction between getting into someone’s face ans shouting at him, and engaging in an act of civil disobedience and protest. A huge difference. The first example is just a personal spat that changes nobody’s mind, while the second has a long and proud tradition in all American civil rights struggles, from abolition and women’s suffrage to the modern civil rights era.

I want to discuss the real issues, but instead I’m feeling attacked for extraneous details. (Witness how this thread went from “Dan Choi is acting irrationally” to “My statistics are better than yours”) Focusing on the small & extraneous details and ripping them apart as a way to undermine the caller is a ploy that (especially) rightwing radio talk show hosts employ. But BTB isn’t Sean “Banality”, but and should be the place of *real* dialog.

So I’m still looking for answers & input for the real questions raised in the postings above:

• Have we “lost” Dan Choi? Has he turned from a promising spokesman to an irrational agitator?
• Are we being too light on Dan Choi? When emotional gay protestors disrupted a NOM event in Providence two days ago, Timothy/BTB rightly pointed out that they were undermining our cause. But when Dan Choi acts just as irrationally and shuts down traffic in Vegas for an ill-conceived protest, do we give him a pass? Why?
• Why did the Field Poll data, which showed for most of the decade an overall increasing trend towards gay marriage suddenly change between the 2008 and the 2009 polls? What stunted the trend of public opinion moving towards gay marriage acceptance?
• And why do we gay men feel the need to dance when we hear the music of Lady Gaga? (Okay, scratch that last one – some mysteries are better left unexplored.) :-)

I’d appreciate the dialog. Thanks.

Okay, let’s review this in the simplest terms, with a very simple analogy:

Imagine every day you wake up and the sky is blue. Every day, blue sky. Monday morning, the sky is blue.

But then Tuesday morning you wake up and the sky is (gasp!) red. And every day thereafter, the sky is red.

The sky was blue Monday morning, but was red Tuesday morning.

So, when did the sky turn from Blue to Red?
A. Before Monday morning?
B. Between Monday morning and Tuesday morning?
C. After Tuesday morning?

Yes, the correct answer is B. Between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

So with this analogy, let’s look at the Field Poll data. Since the beginning of the The Field Poll data, the overall trend has been increasing. In 2008, the trend was still increasing. But then in 2009, it (gasp!) turned flat/negative. And again in the following year, still flat/negative.

So, when did the trend turn from increasing towards gay marriage to flat/negative towards gay marriage?
A. Before 2008?
B. Between 2008 & 2009?
C. After 2009?

Yes, again the correct answer is B. The trend changed between 2008 & 2009.

I will not discuss this further with someone who has no understanding of statistics, and who is not interested in learning.

The end. We’re done here.

SO THE QUESTION I ask yet again, the question you don’t seem to want to address: If it wasn’t the all the problematic protests, blocked streets, ad-hoc demonstrations, and vandalism towards Prop8 supporters, then what do YOU propose was the reason for the dip in support for gay support after 2008 in California?

Either that or I am wrong. And every statistician and mathematician is wrong. Every statistics textbook is wrong. Every statistics professor is wrong. Every pollster is wrong. And you alone are right.

I’m done arguing.

Total funds raised for/against Prop8:
Pro-Prop 8: $39.9 million
Anti-Prop 8: $43.3 million
(Source: The Associated Press 02-02-2009, also on Wikipedia. )

So wouldn’t that indicate that, overall, with more money being spent on pro-gay marriage that it would have helped our Field Poll numbers? (Let’s not discuss the Election Poll itself and its results. That’s a conversation for several hours over several drinks. Next time you’re in Southern Cal let me know and we can have a drink or two together.)

John in the Bay Area,
Agreed – our Anti-8 campaign was weak and disappointing. And I believe that if the Anti-8 folks had pulled out the stops and played the Mormon card as you suggest, things could have been different.