Unfortunately, as far as I understand, the new districting method that was adopted in 2006 goes into effect in 2012. So there will be no more swings comparable to the one 2010. The Dems couldn’t have picked a worse time to suffer a huge defeat.

The NH House and Senate likely are artificially lopsided toward the GOP and there should be some settling back, but the chances of the Dems retaking either house would appear to be slim.

If there are any NH experts who could shed some more light on this, I would appreciate it.

I think few of them consider their majority to be some sort of mandate for overturning marriage and perhaps a few recognize that the voters actually said quite the opposite.

But which 40? How many are still currently in office, or were they removed for being RINOs? I can’t find that info.

Some are, some didn’t run again. You can find the votes at the NH legislature site and compare it to the list of elected officials at the NH sec of state site. I did this in November and it was my impression that while some didn’t seek reelection, no one lost their seat.

And yes, every year it can be put off the better. 2012 will be better then 2011 and 2013 will be better then 2012. It may not even achieve majority support in 2013 since the Democrats are likely to gain back several seats in the legislature.

As far as a Republican governor coming in next term, 2015 is a long ways away (4 years is lightyears in the gay marriage movement), and the Democrats are likely to gain more seats by then and it may not even achieve a majority in the NH House.

If anyone wants to try to quantify the level of support, here is the roll call for the Feb. 2010 repeal vote:

http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/bill_Status/Roll_calls/billstatus_rcdetails.aspx?vs=82&sy=2010&lb=H&eb=HB1590&sortoption=&txtsessionyear=2010&txttitle=Marriage&ddlsponsors=&lsr=2069

It is worth noting that 60 representatives, from both parties, did not vote.

Two factors weighing in our favor, and one against: In our favor, if the vote is put off until 2012, that will mean 2 years will have passed since the law went into effect. The longer it stays in effect, the harder it will be to repeal. Second factor in our favor is that the fight will be to sustain Lynch’s veto. So the Dems are more likely to stay united. In 2010, 4 Dems voted for repeal and probably other cross-overs were among the 60 non-voters.

One factor against us: The repeal supporters are not seeking to dissolve existing SSMs; it would only apply prospectively. Also, if they are not confident of passage, they are likely to try to package the repeal with an offer some second class DP rights, something less than civil unions. This will be billed as a “moderate” position, i.e., more compassionate than a bare repeal but less radical than allowing SSM to continue. For some reason, I find this to be more infuriating than a simple repeal.