Comments on: Maine poll shows strong support for marriage

By: Stefan

Stefan — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 21:34:12 +0000

Mark,

I am very confident that we’ll win Maine and Washington. Minnesota and Maryland I think are tossups, though Minnesota our side has a slight advantage since a blank vote counts as a No. Maryland also has show surges in support for marriage equality since Obama’s announcement.

By: Mark F.

Mark F. — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 19:12:34 +0000

I am cautiously optimistic that we will win all 4 referendums (including MN) this November. Call me crazy…

By: Stefan

Stefan — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 12:46:54 +0000

I meant Maryland in terms of opposition since there referendum if passed would repeal same sex marriage. Sorry for the mix up.

By: F Young

F Young — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 20:54:42 +0000

@Stephan “Maine, Maryland, and Washington have all had polls at or exceeding 55% level of support (or opposition in Maine).”

Can you clarify that statement? Did you actually mean:

“Maine, Maryland and Washington now all have polls at or exceeding 55% level of support for same-sex marriage.”

By: Stefan

Stefan — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 19:56:35 +0000

For the record, NO poll in any state where there has been a referendum on same sex marriage at any point had support as high as the levels in Maine are. In California the highest they ever showed was 55% opposition and in Maine the highest was 53%.

Maine, Maryland, and Washington have all had polls at or exceeding 55% level of support (or opposition in Maine).

By: Stephen Kay

Stephen Kay — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 07:15:51 +0000

Since prop. hate in cali i don’t trust any poll that has support for us listed as under 60%. I have yet to see one and we have yet to win a referendum concerning full marriage.

By: F Young

F Young — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 14:53:08 +0000

For what it’s worth, I predict that another factor influencing all the marriage equality referenda in November will be that in October 2012 the US Supreme Court will decide not to hear an appeal on California’s Proposition 8 (and instead agree to hear appeals on the federal DOMA), thus conclusively legalizing same-sex marriage in America’s biggest state.

By: Hunter

Hunter — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 13:02:18 +0000

Loathe as I am to make predictions, I suspect very strongly that we can expect a spate of very negative advertising just before the election, when NOM starts pumping money into the campaigns. The ads will be all about preachers going to jail and “Save the Children!” because that has always worked for them.

By: Timothy Kincaid

Timothy Kincaid — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 14:31:44 +0000

Well said, Zeke

By: ODNT

ODNT — Thu, 12 Jul 2012 18:38:47 +0000

F Young:

Thank you for such a detailed response that was very illuminating.

Another reason to be cautiously optimistic is that the last vote was in 2009, a non-mid-term, non-presidential election year with low turnout, whereas this is a presidential year, which has the highest turnout. Is that something that is priced into the polls already?