August 4th, 2008
The big news this morning is that the CDC has confirmed its latest estimates of HIV incidence in the United States. Regular longtime readers at Box Turtle Bulletin may remember that these new figures were first discussed last November, with a follow-up in March.
At the time, the CDC were emphatic that the higher number of HIV cases reported “do not represent an increase in the epidemic.” Instead, the higher numbers were due to an improved surveillance system and blood tests. The CDC also said they were awaiting a professional peer review in a major medical journal.
The Journal of the American Medical Association yesterday released the results of that peer review and validated the new estimate. Among the Journal’s findings:
An estimated 39,400 persons were diagnosed with HIV in 2006 in the 22 states. Of 6864 diagnostic specimens tested using the BED assay, 2133 (31%) were classified as recent infections. Based on extrapolations from these data, the estimated number of new infections for the United States in 2006 was 56,300 (95% confidence interval [CI], 48,200-64,500); the estimated incidence rate was 22.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI, 19.5-26.1). Forty-five percent of infections were among black individuals and 53% among men who have sex with men. The back-calculation (n = 1.230 million HIV/AIDS cases reported by the end of 2006) yielded an estimate of 55,400 (95% CI, 50 000-60 800) new infections per year for 2003-2006 and indicated that HIV incidence increased in the mid-1990s, then slightly declined after 1999 and has been stable thereafter.
The CDC emphasizes again:
It should be noted that the new incidence estimate does not represent an actual increase in the numbers of HIV infections. Rather, a separate CDC historical trend analysis published as part of this study suggests that the annual number of new infections was never as low as 40,000 and that it has been roughly stable since the late 1990s (with estimates ranging between 55,000 and 58,500 during the three most recent time periods analyzed).
This is important to remember. This is not a sudden increase in HIV infections, but it does mean that the problem was considerably larger than previously understood. HIV Infection is the precursor to AIDS itself, with the infection often occurring 6-12 years before the onset of AIDS. AID diagnoses have actually been falling slightly throughout the past decade, which is consistent with the CDC’s finding that HIV infections have been relatively steady since 1999.
Latest Posts
Featured Reports
In this original BTB Investigation, we unveil the tragic story of Kirk Murphy, a four-year-old boy who was treated for “cross-gender disturbance” in 1970 by a young grad student by the name of George Rekers. This story is a stark reminder that there are severe and damaging consequences when therapists try to ensure that boys will be boys.
When we first reported on three American anti-gay activists traveling to Kampala for a three-day conference, we had no idea that it would be the first report of a long string of events leading to a proposal to institute the death penalty for LGBT people. But that is exactly what happened. In this report, we review our collection of more than 500 posts to tell the story of one nation’s embrace of hatred toward gay people. This report will be updated continuously as events continue to unfold. Check here for the latest updates.
In 2005, the Southern Poverty Law Center wrote that “[Paul] Cameron’s ‘science’ echoes Nazi Germany.” What the SPLC didn”t know was Cameron doesn’t just “echo” Nazi Germany. He quoted extensively from one of the Final Solution’s architects. This puts his fascination with quarantines, mandatory tattoos, and extermination being a “plausible idea” in a whole new and deeply disturbing light.
On February 10, I attended an all-day “Love Won Out” ex-gay conference in Phoenix, put on by Focus on the Family and Exodus International. In this series of reports, I talk about what I learned there: the people who go to these conferences, the things that they hear, and what this all means for them, their families and for the rest of us.
Prologue: Why I Went To “Love Won Out”
Part 1: What’s Love Got To Do With It?
Part 2: Parents Struggle With “No Exceptions”
Part 3: A Whole New Dialect
Part 4: It Depends On How The Meaning of the Word "Change" Changes
Part 5: A Candid Explanation For "Change"
At last, the truth can now be told.
Using the same research methods employed by most anti-gay political pressure groups, we examine the statistics and the case studies that dispel many of the myths about heterosexuality. Download your copy today!
And don‘t miss our companion report, How To Write An Anti-Gay Tract In Fifteen Easy Steps.
Anti-gay activists often charge that gay men and women pose a threat to children. In this report, we explore the supposed connection between homosexuality and child sexual abuse, the conclusions reached by the most knowledgeable professionals in the field, and how anti-gay activists continue to ignore their findings. This has tremendous consequences, not just for gay men and women, but more importantly for the safety of all our children.
Anti-gay activists often cite the “Dutch Study” to claim that gay unions last only about 1½ years and that the these men have an average of eight additional partners per year outside of their steady relationship. In this report, we will take you step by step into the study to see whether the claims are true.
Tony Perkins’ Family Research Council submitted an Amicus Brief to the Maryland Court of Appeals as that court prepared to consider the issue of gay marriage. We examine just one small section of that brief to reveal the junk science and fraudulent claims of the Family “Research” Council.
The FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics aren’t as complete as they ought to be, and their report for 2004 was no exception. In fact, their most recent report has quite a few glaring holes. Holes big enough for Daniel Fetty to fall through.
Blondie Writes
August 4th, 2008
Very informative article. But there are so many people that have HIV that are not gay and people want you to beleive that only gays have HIV.
John Howard
August 4th, 2008
Sounds like they are making that up about better reporting accounting for the increase. Why aren’t there hard numbers to report, based on real patients getting positive HIV tests? Are they saying that lots of people got false negative tests back then? What is the basis to make such a claim?
Jim Burroway
August 4th, 2008
I don’t know how test methods play into this. I suspect the change has more to do with how they make their estimates, which I went into here last November.
AIDS diagnoses is reportable to the CDC, but HIV+ test results are not necessarily reported. You can now get tested pretty much anywhere, not just in a clinical setting. You can even take a home HIV test. Also, the CDC is trying to get a handle on estimating the number of people who are HIV+ but who haven’t been tested. All this makes an accurate count of everyone who is HIV+ impossible. Hence the estimates.
Jim Burroway
August 4th, 2008
Here’s something else to answer your question. This is from the JAMA article:
In other words, when you get tested for HIV, the test itself can tell if you were recently infected or if you’ve been infected for several years.
John Howard
August 4th, 2008
thanks for those answers. Another thing I was wondering, does the CDC know if the percentage of “men who have sex with men” is increasing, or what that percentage is?
Leave A Comment