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News and commentary about the anti-gay lobbyMay 13th, 2009
The New York State Assembly passed the marriage equality bill 89 to 52. This is reason for celebration. But a closer look suggests that this victory is particularly sweet.
The Assembly voted for a marriage bill in 2007, as well. But in that vote the count was 85 to 61. And while this year’s vote only has four more “yes” votes, the margin of victory increased from 24 to 37.
Elizabeth Benjamin, who writes for the Daily News with the sort of political analysis that I enjoy reading, provides some detail:
Five members who had voted “no” changed their votes – two Republicans: Fred Thiele and Janet Duprey, bringing the total number of GOP “yes” votes to five; two Democrats: Sandy Galef and Bob Reilly; and one Independence Party member, Tim Gordon).
In addition, there were a number of members who were “excused for other reasons” and some seats changed hands. But the net result shows a healthy increase in support, one which suggests that the brand of political calculus engaged in by politicians shows that supporting marriage equality is a safe position.
[Empire State Pride Agenda Executive Director Alan] Van Capelle predicted the vote would prove to be the “tipping point” that pushes the Senate to follow the Assembly’s lead and muster the 32 votes necessary to pass the bill this year. (O’Donnell made much the same argument to me before the vote started).
Getting Republicans to vote “yes” and Democrats who had voted “no” to change their minds is what will move the Senate “from good to great,” Van Capelle said, adding: “I know now this is the last time this house will have to vote on this bill.”
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Lindoro
May 13th, 2009
So what is the next step? With all these “House” and whatever I can never remember who has voted already and how far from the Governor’s desk is the bill.
Timothy Kincaid
May 13th, 2009
Lindoro,
The bill must now go before the Senate. However Malcolm Smith, the Senate Majority leader, will not let the bill be brought up for a vote.
His contention is that unless there is a majority (32 votes) that it would set the community and effort back to have the vote fail. He refuses to reveal his vote count.
However, some suspect that Smith is not concerned about setting back the community so much as he is upholding his end of a bargain with an anti-gay Senator that put him in power.
The Governor, along with grassroots gay activists have been calling for a vote and for putting Senators on record. Some gay political operatives seem to be taking steps designed to avoid a vote in order to keep politicians in power “for the greater good” at the expense of the community.
However, there are murmers that the votes either may be there or may soon be there.
Bruno
May 13th, 2009
Here’s our best public guide so far on where the NY Sens stand: http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6307/senators-positions-on-marriage-equality
Note that in order for the bill to pass as is, 9 more votes would have to move to the “Yes” column. Where would those 9 votes come from? Let’s say they get all 4 Dems that haven’t committed…that leaves 5. 5 from either the firm Dem “no” group (and we know Diaz and Kruger won’t be changing their votes) and/or the 6 uncommitted Republicans. Considering that only 5 GOP in the ASSEMBLY voted “yes,” that’s threading the needle all right.
I’m sorry to say, I just don’t see this happening this year.
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