Box Turtle Bulletin
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News and commentary about the anti-gay lobbyAugust 12th, 2009
After the confusion on validating signatures, many watching (myself included) were discouraged that the fail rate had dropped significantly below that needed to avoid a ballot referendum. But as more signatures are reviewed, that rate is slooooowly starting to increase. And it is reasonable to expect it to continue to rise.
From the Washington Secretary of State blog:
The error rate is expected to rise as the count continues, largely because the number of duplicate signatures will rise as the number of checked signatures rises. In order to qualify for the November ballot, sponsors of R-71 would have to stay below an error rate of 12.4 percent by the time the last signature is checked. State Elections Director Nick Handy said it remains “too close to call” whether R-71 will make the ballot, and cautioned against making assumptions based on the current error rate.
Currently 48,299 (35%) of signatures have been checked. Of those, 5,121 have been permanently invalidated for a cumulative fail rate of 10.60%. This is up from 10.39% fail rate at 25% completed.
But we have no way of knowing whether the signatures reviewed to date are representative of the selection as a whole.
they were bound in volumes of 15 petitions, with no particular order, either geographically or date in which they were gathered initially. Each bound volume was assigned a number and are being assigned to checkers in no particular order– luck of the draw.
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John
August 12th, 2009
This worries me, but I still can’t see how they can win. I read a poll recently that said that 70% of Washingtonians support Domestic Partnerships, and other polls have shown 46%-48% support for gay marriage in Washington. Even if the anti-gays were able to convince everyone who is against gay marriage to be against the domestic partnership law, it would still be a close race. And consider that the anti-gay forces only barely managed to get enough signatures by paying people to collect them and lying about what the petitions were for. Still, I can’t help but be pessimistic.
Richard W. Fitch
August 12th, 2009
It would be a sweet victory if most the signatories actually were hoping to put this to a ballot and then voting overwhelmingly against the recension.
David
August 12th, 2009
How long does it usually take for Washington to count votes? (its already been a few days now!)
Just curious, since I am not a USA:ian, but it seems rather slow for a modern contry….
(even with the recounting/checking)
Well, hope the anti-gays clearly loses this one also anyway….
David C.
August 12th, 2009
They are only counting signatures on petitions at this point.
Per the Washington SoS blog:
Daily updates are available late in the day west coast time here.
Elise
August 12th, 2009
re: How this referendum might pass in Washington:
If it’s found valid, it will be on the ballot this year, a off-year election where none of the other races have attracted much interest from voters. (AFAIK.) That generally means lower voter turnout from inconsistent voters like young people, and more steady turnout among older voters. Without a Get Out the Vote campaign towards people more likely to be gay friendly, Washington’s anti-gay minority could still carry the vote, especially if anti-gay groups stir up enough disinformation and fear.
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