Minnesota poll: anti-equality amendment close

Timothy Kincaid

January 31st, 2012

Public Policy Polling found:

Q2 Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
48% Yes
44% No
8% Not sure

Q3 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
37% Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
34% Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
27% There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship
2% Not sure

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
43% Legal
47% Illegal
10% Not sure

This is not good news. Generally, in marriage polls the undecideds all go to the anti-gay position.


January 31st, 2012

One thing that works in our favor is that voters who didn’t answer the question is a NO vote. That usually means a 1 to 2% bump to the NO column. Still 10 months to go to change opinions.

I already threatened my family that if they even think of voting yes – they aren’t invited to our wedding.


January 31st, 2012

PPP is usually skewed to the right since they only use landlines.


February 1st, 2012

Three things going for us. First is Tim’s point about how a blank ballot counts as a no vote. This may be the only reason we win, if we win.

Second, this is a PPP poll and PPP has been right on the money on gay marriage. They called both CA and ME correctly. So I think that a “don’t know” in a PPP poll is really a “don’t know” and not just a bashful yes vote.

Third, even when considering polls other than PPP, the “don’t knows” who cut to the anti-gay side are the “don’t knows” left at the end of the campaign. The 10% saying they are unsure of their position now are not all going to cut anti-gay.

Tim: I like your style. Make it clear to these people that they can’t screw you over in the voting booth and then expect tea and crumpets from you.


February 1st, 2012

The other thing is hardcore politics season just start in Mn. The Legistlature is just back. Minnesota is a causcus state and that is next Tuesday. So more things are in the works.

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