A Bad Day for Anti-Gays

Timothy Kincaid

June 17th, 2008

Not only did same-sex marriage begin in abundance across the state of California, the “last ditch efforts” of the opponents to marriage equality were tossed out on their ear.

Attempts by conservative opponents to halt same-sex marriage before the November election failed Tuesday afternoon when both the state appeals court and a Sacramento trial judge refused to block local officials from issuing marriage licenses to gay couples.

Sacramento Superior Court Judge Patrick Marlette refused to grant a temporary restraining order sought on technical grounds by five supervisors from Yuba, Stanislaus, Nevada and Sutter counties.

Earlier Tuesday, a state appeals court also refused to block the same-sex weddings until after voters consider a constitutional amendment in November that would again limit marriage to a man and a woman.

No surprises there.

Ephilei

June 17th, 2008

It would be so interesting to work in the CA courts right now. Much more exciting than parking tickets.

Suricou Raven

June 18th, 2008

Enjoy while it lasts – The marriage-banning ammendment is almost certain to pass in November, not just preventing new marriage but annulling those already performed.

Still, it’s a few months to demonstrate that gay marriage isn’t going to destroy anything :>

Duncan

June 18th, 2008

I don’t agree with Mr Raven. There’s a good chance the amendment will be defeated. It’s happened in Arizona, which is surely more conservative than California.

The legislature has already voted twice in favour of equal marriage (though the voting system means the representatives are more liberal than their constituents), and the popular governor supports it. And it’s surely in CA more than anywhere else that gays live like everyone else, not confined in urban ghettos.

Remains to be seen if Dr. Dobson and his colleagues will start railing against arrogant unelected voters taking decisions away from ordinary Americans (i.e. themselves).

Todd

June 18th, 2008

I also beleive that if the amendment passes, it will not have the effect of “overturning” the decision of the court since the decision was much broader than the amendment writers could have anticipated. There is a good chance that if the amendment does pass, the ruling that the State must recognize all unions equally may lead to the State being forced to only recognize Domestic Partnerships for all couples as the term marriage will be limited to only male/female couples. The fact that sexual orientation was determined to be a suspect class and therefore falls under the equality clauses of the State constitution as to equality of laws, also plays a huge roll in the decision. The amendment does not overule these aspects of the decision so there is a good chance equality can be maintained.

Timothy Kincaid

June 18th, 2008

Enjoy while it lasts – The marriage-banning ammendment is almost certain to pass in November, not just preventing new marriage but annulling those already performed.

Suricou Raven,

Are you a Californian? As a fourth generation native that has lived in Northern, Central, and Southern California, I have some very reasons to think otherwise. The circumstances now are very different than they were in 2000 and I think that there is a very good chance that this amendment will fail. And by substantial numbers.

I may later write a post on why but I want to wait until the vote is closer.

Suricou Raven

June 18th, 2008

No, I was basing my guess on two factors: Past trends and efforts. In other states, the campaigners trying to pass no-gay-marriage amendments have done so more often than now, even when the amendments have some potentially dangerously unclear language. They are also campaigning more heavily than ever before – they know as well as us that CA could be a turning point. The financial effort, not to mention the underhanded manipulation, is very powerful. They got enough signatures to get on the ballot *easily* – it wasn’t even close. Also, I note that two years ago the people voted for a plain law to ban gay marriage – it passed. The new amendment uses the same wording. Two years isn’t that much time to change, and this time the anti-gay-marriage faction is much more motivated. A poll says it has 52% backing, and remember that those who support it are *far* more likely to bother voting than those who claimed to oppose, many of whome don’t have strong views and so just said no by default.

I think they can do it. I am quite confident in this.

As for the effect of the amendment, that’s easy enough to find out. Just look up it’s exact wording. It couldn’t be more clear: “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.” That’s it. No complicated legal text this time: Just a single sentence. The effect of that is very obvious: All those gay marriages will no longer be recognised.

Unusually for a marriage protection ammendment, there is no ban on civil unions. Bit of a loophole there, but it would only work that way if the legislature voted to pass a law creating civil unions. And even if they did, there would be no federal recognition, which makes them half-useless.

Timothy Kincaid

June 18th, 2008

Suricou Raven,

I appreciate the factors you are considering. I am considering those as well. But I think there are more that you are not considering and I hope to discuss those further in a later post.

Let me just make a few factual corrections…

1. “They got enough signatures to get on the ballot *easily* – it wasn’t even close.”

Actually it was fairly close timewise. As of a few weeks before the deadline they had to redouble efforts to push to get the signatures. I didn’t doubt that they would, but it wasn’t a slam-dunk.

2. “Also, I note that two years ago the people voted for a plain law to ban gay marriage – it passed. The new amendment uses the same wording. Two years isn’t that much time to change, and this time the anti-gay-marriage faction is much more motivated.”

That vote was in 2000, eight years ago, not two.

3. “A poll says it has 52% backing, and remember that those who support it are *far* more likely to bother voting than those who claimed to oppose, many of whome don’t have strong views and so just said no by default.”

There are conflicting polls. Another poll released a week later said that the amendment would fail. See my commentary here.

4. “As for the effect of the amendment, that’s easy enough to find out. Just look up it’s exact wording. It couldn’t be more clear: “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.” That’s it. No complicated legal text this time: Just a single sentence. The effect of that is very obvious: All those gay marriages will no longer be recognised.”

Actually, there are a number of outcomes, none of which is obvious. This is because the ruling was not limited to marriage but also established orientation as a “suspect class” and also because amendments are not retroactive. There is no clear agreement of what is likely, much less what is obvious. However, most legal experts I’ve heard agree that marriages that occur before November will continue to stand.

5. “Unusually for a marriage protection ammendment, there is no ban on civil unions. Bit of a loophole there, but it would only work that way if the legislature voted to pass a law creating civil unions. And even if they did, there would be no federal recognition, which makes them half-useless.”

Currently California has Domestic Partnerships that have all and exactly the same rights, benefits and obligations of marriage that are conferred by the State. No further litigation would be necessary.

I appreciate your concern but I think that your prediction about the outcome of a California vote in November may be based on incomplete information.

Todd

June 18th, 2008

Timothy,

As you were probably aware, there was a second petition in California that would have banned marriages and Domestic Partnerships in California and that one did not get enough signatures to be voted on in November.

Suricou Raven

June 18th, 2008

We shall see following November.

I doubt that will be the end of it though. If you are correct, then even if this amendment passes, it will still leave domestic partnerships in place. The anti-gay-marriage campaigners will not settle for that.

Robguy

June 19th, 2008

With all the talk about which states will recognize the marriages, I think it would be hilarious if some states started not recognizing marriages from states that didn’t offer marriage equality. (I know that would never happen, but it would still be funny).

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