Box Turtle Bulletin

Catholic Group Releases Completely Bogus “Poll”

A press release from the Knights of Columbus, makes the following dramatic claim.

A new poll of California voters shows Proposition 8, a proposed constitutional amendment that would reserve marriage for opposite-sex couples, has a 9 percentage point lead among likely voters, 52% to 43%. The poll was conducted for the Knights of Columbus by the Marist College Institute of Public Opinion between September 28 and October 5, 2008.

That would certainly be of concern… if it were even remotely true.

There are two types of polls, those that seek to obtain information about the views and attitudes of those surveyed, and those that seek to provide a false sense of authority to a questionable claim.

If I were seeking to know whether Joe’s Ice Cream or Suzy’s Ice Cream was a preferred brand, I might do a poll that asked participants a straight-forward question that revealed brand preference. “Which Ice Cream brand do you prefer, Joe’s or Suzy’s?”

But if I trying to get people to buy Joe’s Ice Cream, I might run a poll asking, “If you knew that Suzy’s Ice Cream was made in filthy and unsanitary conditions and that the profits go to support terrorism, which brand would you buy, Joe’s or Suzy’s”.

To understand this new “poll” from the Knights (PDF), you have to know a bit about the players

The Knights of Columbus are a Catholic fraternal order. Some of what they do benefits various charities and other efforts seek to impose their Catholic faith on the laws that impact their non-Catholic neighbors. The Knights of Columbus have given over $1,285,000 to the Yes on 8 Campaign.

The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion is a survey research center at Marist College, “a non-sectarian college that privileges its Catholic heritage in all areas of university life.” Marist is a conservative college.

I have found no indication that the Marist Poll is generally fraudulent of disreputable. But even the most casual of observers can see pretty quickly that this effort for the Knights of Columbus is nothing more that a smoke screen created to give substance to a blatantly untruthful press release.

The first indication that there may be shenanigans is in the chief question on the poll. Reputable polls will ask questions that are likely to elicit a response that will correlate to what will happen when the voter enters the booth. Not in this case.

California voters will be asked to vote yes or no on the following:

8. ELIMINATES RIGHT OF SAME-SEX COUPLES TO MARRY. INITIATIVE CONSTITIONAL AMENDMENT. Changes California Constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry. Provides that only marriage between a man and woman is valid or recognized in California. Fiscal Impact: Over the next few years, potential revenue loss, mainly sales taxes, totaling in the several tens of millions of dollars, to state and local governments. In the long run, likely little fiscal impact on state and local governments.

One would expect, then, for a poll seeking voter intentions to ask a question that reasonable approximates the ballot question. It should reference same-sex couples and discuss eliminating rights. Marist asked the following:

Proposition 8 is the “Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment.” It amends the California constitution to say that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 8?

That’s not the same question. The name given by Marist may fit well with their religious agenda, but it isn’t on the ballot. And no where in Marist’s question was any indication that same-sex couples would have their rights eliminated.

Thereafter the poll gets more interesting. Their other questions fall under what is called “push polling“. It’s where a “pollster” is phrasing their statement in the form of a question but the objective is to sway the voter, not obtain their unbiased opinion.

The language in Proposition 8 defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman was approved by more than 61% of California voters in 2000. Earlier this year, four judges in San Francisco overturned this vote and declared that gay people have a constitutional right to be married. Do you think the judges were correct in their decision, or not?

And then there is a string of completely dishonest claims

Please tell me whether each of the following makes you more or less likely to support Proposition 8. What if you learned that:

• If Proposition 8 passes, gay or lesbian couples will still be able to form civil unions and have the same rights as married heterosexual couples
• If Proposition 8 fails, heterosexual couples who want to be legally married in a church that won’t perform same-sex marriage would then have to be married outside their church
• If Proposition 8 fails, priests, ministers, and other clergy who won’t perform same-sex marriages because of their religious beliefs will face lawsuits and may lose their right to perform heterosexual marriages
• If Proposition 8 fails, children in public schools will be taught that marriage is a relationship between any two adults rather than a man and a woman
• If Proposition 8 fails, religious schools that provide housing for married students may lose their tax-exempt status if they don’t do so for gay or lesbian couples
• If Proposition 8 fails, religious adoption agencies that place children only in homes with a mother and a father will not be able to place children in foster homes

And my favorite

Please listen to the following views about same-sex marriage.

(A) Same sex marriage should NOT be law if priests, ministers, and other clergy who believe the Bible allows for marriage only between a man and a woman will not be able to legally marry these couples in their place of worship without risk of lawsuits or loss of their tax-exempt status.

(B) Same sex marriage SHOULD become law, so gay and lesbian couples may have the same rights as other couples through marriage.

Do you believe same sex marriage should not be law or should be law?

Wow. Those are my two choices?

And so on they go.

But even with the ridiculousness of the “poll”s questions, I still have questions about the polling methods. It is not clear in which order these questions were asked. If the Push Polling came before the question about voting intention, then 52% saying that they support Proposition 8 is the result of the Push Poll rather than a reflection of the voters’ intentions when they picked up the phone.

This does seem to be likely. The results of the question about “four judges in San Francisco” overruling “61% of California voters” also resulted in 52% to 43%, an unlikely coincidence.

Also, considering the dishonesty stinking up the rest of the “poll”, I would have to question the methods by which the samples were selected. Choosing to call only on land lines, selection of calling time, and many other variables can all result in skewed results. And what of sample selection, is it representative of the diversity of the voting population?

Based on the questions they asked, I can’t be blamed for my suspicion that Marist cut whatever corners would result in the desired press release. Clearly, the desired conclusion was far more important than an honest assessment of the current status of voter opinion.

And so the anti-gay Knights of Columbus have released their bogus “poll” saying what they wanted it to say. And they only had to give up their very last shred of integrity to do so.