PPIC Survey: Prop 8 is Behind

Timothy Kincaid

October 22nd, 2008

At the end of August the Public Policy Institute of California released a survey showing that Proposition 8 was trailing among likely voters by 54% to 40%. A new poll released today shows that while the supporters of Prop 8 have made some progress, at two weeks out the initiative is still likely to fail.

Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Although this is encouraging news, their polling shows that the Yes on 8 Campaign ads are being effective in reaching certain populations, particularly Republicans. The proposition has picked up eight points among Republicans since September (from 62% to 70%).

Demographic turnout could impact the final vote

At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%) and in the “Other Southern California” region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.


October 23rd, 2008

Perhaps now the MSM will finally stop using that absurd SurveyUSA story.

Southern Decency

October 23rd, 2008

I think the SurveyUSA story has actually been helpful. It kept the pro-gay side from becoming too complacent and lazy. At last people got scared and started donating money and volunteering.


October 23rd, 2008

Finally some good news! We definitely need to keep fighting hard for the next 12 days.

I was really glad to see the new ad with the Superintendant of Schools, debunking the “gays are after your kids” ad. If we get the truth out, we’ll win.


October 23rd, 2008

I definitely hope this poll is right, but I can’t help being cynical that this will actually pass. *sigh* Perhaps it’s my age. Eh, didn’t stop me from donating to all three state campaigns though…


October 23rd, 2008

This doesn’t make me feel much better. I remember at the beginning of the campaign someone talked about how when it comes to controvercial issues there is always a few point sway between what the polls say and what people actually vote in the voters booth. This is because people feel pressure to sound more PC to a pollster than they actually are.

I dont know how many votes that will sway but when you consider the margin of error of a poll plus the fact that some who say they will vote no will actually vote yes when noone is looking, that makes me think its a dead heat.

And I don’t like betting my future on that!


October 23rd, 2008

FiveThirtyEight.com has a good analysis of Prop 8 and concludes that it’s still a toss up, although the Yes on 8 side has a very good chance of winning.


Bruce Garrett

October 23rd, 2008

These polls always scare the heck out of me. I’ve been in this fight since I was a teenager, and I’ve seen over and over how the polls skew towards us, but in the privacy of the voting booth, more people vote against us.

Tell the truth, I wouldn’t feel comfortable if we were winning in the polls by 60 percent. People lie to pollsters when it comes to casting certain votes they know are morally wrong, but will do anyway because their prejudices matter more then their conscience.

All the more reason to keep fighting I guess…


October 23rd, 2008

The more important question is why our rights are being put up for a vote at all?


October 27th, 2008

I am an ardent volunteer and supporter against Prop 8 in San Diego. I agree with Southern Decency’s comment on laziness. I am disappointed with the complete apathy of a large number of unconcerned GLBT people here. But I think the fear of losing this battle is slowly starting to sink in and I am seeing more people starting to actively participate. This isn’t going to be won by each person deciding that someone else will do the work for them. We all have to participate.

But I have been pleasantly surprised by the number of straight supporters and members of different religious faiths who believe in equality and love who have donated or volunteered with us.

San Diego is very important in the vote since it has one of the highest number of undecided voters. What happens in San Diego can easily sway this either way.

Leave A Comment

All comments reflect the opinions of commenters only. They are not necessarily those of anyone associated with Box Turtle Bulletin. Comments are subject to our Comments Policy.

(Required, never shared)

PLEASE NOTE: All comments are subject to our Comments Policy.


Latest Posts

The Things You Learn from the Internet

"The Intel On This Wasn't 100 Percent"

From Fake News To Real Bullets: This Is The New Normal

NC Gov McCrory Throws In The Towel

Colorado Store Manager Verbally Attacks "Faggot That Voted For Hillary" In Front of 4-Year-Old Son

Associated Press Updates "Alt-Right" Usage Guide

A Challenge for Blue Bubble Democrats

Baptist Churches in Dallas, Austin Expelled Over LGBT-Affirming Stance

Featured Reports

What Are Little Boys Made Of?

In this original BTB Investigation, we unveil the tragic story of Kirk Murphy, a four-year-old boy who was treated for “cross-gender disturbance” in 1970 by a young grad student by the name of George Rekers. This story is a stark reminder that there are severe and damaging consequences when therapists try to ensure that boys will be boys.

Slouching Towards Kampala: Uganda’s Deadly Embrace of Hate

When we first reported on three American anti-gay activists traveling to Kampala for a three-day conference, we had no idea that it would be the first report of a long string of events leading to a proposal to institute the death penalty for LGBT people. But that is exactly what happened. In this report, we review our collection of more than 500 posts to tell the story of one nation’s embrace of hatred toward gay people. This report will be updated continuously as events continue to unfold. Check here for the latest updates.

Paul Cameron’s World

In 2005, the Southern Poverty Law Center wrote that “[Paul] Cameron’s ‘science’ echoes Nazi Germany.” What the SPLC didn”t know was Cameron doesn’t just “echo” Nazi Germany. He quoted extensively from one of the Final Solution’s architects. This puts his fascination with quarantines, mandatory tattoos, and extermination being a “plausible idea” in a whole new and deeply disturbing light.

From the Inside: Focus on the Family’s “Love Won Out”

On February 10, I attended an all-day “Love Won Out” ex-gay conference in Phoenix, put on by Focus on the Family and Exodus International. In this series of reports, I talk about what I learned there: the people who go to these conferences, the things that they hear, and what this all means for them, their families and for the rest of us.

Prologue: Why I Went To “Love Won Out”
Part 1: What’s Love Got To Do With It?
Part 2: Parents Struggle With “No Exceptions”
Part 3: A Whole New Dialect
Part 4: It Depends On How The Meaning of the Word "Change" Changes
Part 5: A Candid Explanation For "Change"

The Heterosexual Agenda: Exposing The Myths

At last, the truth can now be told.

Using the same research methods employed by most anti-gay political pressure groups, we examine the statistics and the case studies that dispel many of the myths about heterosexuality. Download your copy today!

And don‘t miss our companion report, How To Write An Anti-Gay Tract In Fifteen Easy Steps.

Testing The Premise: Are Gays A Threat To Our Children?

Anti-gay activists often charge that gay men and women pose a threat to children. In this report, we explore the supposed connection between homosexuality and child sexual abuse, the conclusions reached by the most knowledgeable professionals in the field, and how anti-gay activists continue to ignore their findings. This has tremendous consequences, not just for gay men and women, but more importantly for the safety of all our children.

Straight From The Source: What the “Dutch Study” Really Says About Gay Couples

Anti-gay activists often cite the “Dutch Study” to claim that gay unions last only about 1½ years and that the these men have an average of eight additional partners per year outside of their steady relationship. In this report, we will take you step by step into the study to see whether the claims are true.

The FRC’s Briefs Are Showing

Tony Perkins’ Family Research Council submitted an Amicus Brief to the Maryland Court of Appeals as that court prepared to consider the issue of gay marriage. We examine just one small section of that brief to reveal the junk science and fraudulent claims of the Family “Research” Council.

Daniel Fetty Doesn’t Count

Daniel FettyThe FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics aren’t as complete as they ought to be, and their report for 2004 was no exception. In fact, their most recent report has quite a few glaring holes. Holes big enough for Daniel Fetty to fall through.