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PPIC Survey: Prop 8 is Behind

Timothy Kincaid

October 22nd, 2008

At the end of August the Public Policy Institute of California released a survey showing that Proposition 8 was trailing among likely voters by 54% to 40%. A new poll released today shows that while the supporters of Prop 8 have made some progress, at two weeks out the initiative is still likely to fail.

Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Although this is encouraging news, their polling shows that the Yes on 8 Campaign ads are being effective in reaching certain populations, particularly Republicans. The proposition has picked up eight points among Republicans since September (from 62% to 70%).

Demographic turnout could impact the final vote

At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%) and in the “Other Southern California” region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.

Comments

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KipEsquire
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

Perhaps now the MSM will finally stop using that absurd SurveyUSA story.

Southern Decency
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

I think the SurveyUSA story has actually been helpful. It kept the pro-gay side from becoming too complacent and lazy. At last people got scared and started donating money and volunteering.

Tara TASW
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

Finally some good news! We definitely need to keep fighting hard for the next 12 days.

I was really glad to see the new ad with the Superintendant of Schools, debunking the “gays are after your kids” ad. If we get the truth out, we’ll win.

John
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

I definitely hope this poll is right, but I can’t help being cynical that this will actually pass. *sigh* Perhaps it’s my age. Eh, didn’t stop me from donating to all three state campaigns though…

Pomo
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

This doesn’t make me feel much better. I remember at the beginning of the campaign someone talked about how when it comes to controvercial issues there is always a few point sway between what the polls say and what people actually vote in the voters booth. This is because people feel pressure to sound more PC to a pollster than they actually are.

I dont know how many votes that will sway but when you consider the margin of error of a poll plus the fact that some who say they will vote no will actually vote yes when noone is looking, that makes me think its a dead heat.

And I don’t like betting my future on that!

kevin
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

FiveThirtyEight.com has a good analysis of Prop 8 and concludes that it’s still a toss up, although the Yes on 8 side has a very good chance of winning.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/prop-8-toss-up.html

Bruce Garrett
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

These polls always scare the heck out of me. I’ve been in this fight since I was a teenager, and I’ve seen over and over how the polls skew towards us, but in the privacy of the voting booth, more people vote against us.

Tell the truth, I wouldn’t feel comfortable if we were winning in the polls by 60 percent. People lie to pollsters when it comes to casting certain votes they know are morally wrong, but will do anyway because their prejudices matter more then their conscience.

All the more reason to keep fighting I guess…

John
October 23rd, 2008 | LINK

The more important question is why our rights are being put up for a vote at all?

Patrick
October 27th, 2008 | LINK

I am an ardent volunteer and supporter against Prop 8 in San Diego. I agree with Southern Decency’s comment on laziness. I am disappointed with the complete apathy of a large number of unconcerned GLBT people here. But I think the fear of losing this battle is slowly starting to sink in and I am seeing more people starting to actively participate. This isn’t going to be won by each person deciding that someone else will do the work for them. We all have to participate.

But I have been pleasantly surprised by the number of straight supporters and members of different religious faiths who believe in equality and love who have donated or volunteered with us.

San Diego is very important in the vote since it has one of the highest number of undecided voters. What happens in San Diego can easily sway this either way.

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