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News and commentary about the anti-gay lobby“Now you must raise your children up in a world where that union of man and box turtle is on the same legal footing as man and wife…”
News and commentary about the anti-gay lobbyApril 6th, 2009
Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has become a bit of a hero to those who turn to pundits and prognosticators. His accuracy at predicting voter results has made him an instant legend.
Silver has now reviewed 30 constitutional amendments and come up with a formula for predicting the results of votes to ban gay marriage. And it requires only three variables:
1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
Silver sees a trend in which anti-gay bans lose about 2% support each year. And he projects the date at which such a ban could not be passed in each state (for example, California’s Proposition 8 would have failed in 2010).
Now, more than half of the US several states have already banned gay marriage. And there is a difference between defeating an anti-marriage amendment and supporting a pro-marriage amendment. But it is reasonable to assume that the date on which an anti-gay marriage amendment would fail and that on which a pro-gay marriage amendment would pass are not separated by too many years.
And he predicts that support for marriage bans will quite soon be limited to the states where one most expects it.
By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024.
Time is on our side.
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Adam Kautz
April 6th, 2009
it should also be noted that Mississippi didn’t ratify the 13th amendment until 1995. Shows just how out of touch the deep south is with the rest of the country.
occono
April 6th, 2009
“Several” States have banned Gay Marriage? That’s rather understating it…
cowboy
April 6th, 2009
And not Utah….??
Only if it means it gets Mitt Romney elected President will Mormons allow gays to marry.
Timothy Kincaid
April 6th, 2009
Oconno,
good point. I revised.
Bills
April 6th, 2009
America will NEVER condone same-sex marriage at the expense of innocent children and those yet to be born. We must take every action to protect our younger members of society from unwanted gay tyranny in the public square.
Zeke
April 6th, 2009
I think things will change faster than most people can imagine. Once the momentum gets going it picks up speed quickly.
HOWEVER, as a Mississippian, I have to say that I think the prediction that Mississippi might overrule their amendment by 2024 is terribly optimistic.
Bruno
April 6th, 2009
Bills, put the Kool-Aid down. Your side is losing at a high-speed rate, and we won’t even have to wait for Mississippi before gay marriage rights are nationally enforcable. Sorry to be the one to break the news to you.
AJD
April 6th, 2009
This all begs the question: Why the hell will it take the U.S., the supposed “leader of the free world,” so damn long to treat all of its citizens equally? Spain was ruled by a fascist dictator until 30-something years ago, and South Africa had Apartheid until 1994, yet they both have same-sex marriage now. Canada, whose culture is so similar to ours, has it too. So why do we have to wait until 2024?
I know the answer: Because we live in the United States of Hypocrisy.
Jack Mehoff
April 6th, 2009
LOL!!
Desperate people will believe anything that agrees with their hopes and dreams.
Hate to crush them folks, but the public is squarely against gay marriage and it isn’t going to reverse its opinion in 15 years.
Equal rights? YES
Gay Marriage? NO
People do not want to change the definition of marriage from a man and a woman to anybody and everybody.
It isn’t going to happen.
Stop wasting your time.
Jack Mehoff
April 6th, 2009
AJD, all of the United States citizens are treated equally under the law. The law says that marriage is between a man and a woman. If you don’t want to marry a person of the opposite sex, that’s your business. You have the same rights as anyone else. If you don’t like the “United States of Hypocrisy” then leave. Try Saudi Arabia and see if your gay marriage idea gains any traction over there.
Timothy Kincaid
April 7th, 2009
Jack,
Sorry, Pal. But as an Iowa legislator said this week, you’ve already lost. Time is on our side. All of your desperate claims otherwise are not going to change the flow of time.
AJD
April 7th, 2009
Timothy, the guy’s obviously a troll. Why else would he use the name “Jack Mehoff?”
cowboy
April 7th, 2009
Isn’t it fascinating: Jack suggesting gays go live in a theocratic nation. It seems to me he would like the United States to be such a theocracy: Only those who believe in his version of religious marriage shall have any rights.
Priya Lynn
April 7th, 2009
Jack said “If you don’t want to marry a person of the opposite sex, that’s your business. You have the same rights as anyone else.”.
Wrong. If Jack has the right to marry Alice, Mary deserves the same right he has to marry Alice. If that isn’t the case (and in most U.S. states it isn’t) we don’t have equal rights.
David C.
April 7th, 2009
Which essentially much means that America will condone Same-Sex Marriage. That’s because same-sex couples have been shown to make great parents, only have children because they truly want them, often wanting to adopt children apparently unwanted by heterosexuals that either could not care for them, or whose families disintegrated, or that did not want to abort their unborn children.
The only “tyranny in the public square” at work in the case of SSM is that of liars and cheats that have no legitimate arguments left to put forth against SSM and must resort to pseudo-science, distortions, and hate mongering to perpetuate the revenue streams and activism of the anti-gay industry. These illegitimate pretenders to morality are the tyrants unwanted by America.
CP
April 7th, 2009
Jack Melhoff thusly;
“AJD, all of the United States citizens are treated equally under the law. The law says that marriage is between a man and a woman.”
LOL! Gay and straight people have the same rights because they both have the right to marry straight? Got it.
Reminds me of an old Soviet joke. “In America, you have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. And in Russia, we have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. You see? We have the same rights as you!”
As far as the article goes, it’s not wrong. Just terribly optimistic. Gay marriage *will* be legalized, but it’ll take a couple generations. The baby boomers are squarely against it. We’re squarely for it. Our kids will be “Is this a question?” for it.
Jamal
April 11th, 2009
The HETEROSEXUAL-ONLY MARRIAGE advocates want everyone to be the same. CP is on point with this Soviet Union joke “In America, you have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. And in Russia, we have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. You see? We have the same rights as you!â€
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