LA Times Says Wait Until 2012

Timothy Kincaid

August 17th, 2009

An editorial in the Los Angeles Times endorses the decision by EQCA to wait until 2012 to try and reverse Proposition 8. They also criticize the Courage Campaign for moving forward.

To me, I think that they debate over the date may be partly due to objectives. I think that the LA Times fairly argues from the perspective of EQCA and others who counsel to delay.

The most important objective should be a decisive victory, sending a clear message that this state no longer will tolerate separate but not-quite-equal status for families based on sexual orientation. Given the opinion polls, the lack of a coherent campaign strategy and the current makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court, this most likely means an unfortunate wait. A loss at the ballot box or in the nation’s high court could set back same-sex marriage for years.

If you share the above beliefs about objectives, then waiting until 2012 makes sense. And I think that the language in the editorial highlights the differences in approach, objectives, and goals between those wanting to go in 2010 and those wishing to wait until 2012.

The LA Times – and gay groups urging a wait – are viewing this as an election effort. Their goal is how best to run a campaign, how to achieve votes, how to pass this particular referendum. This is seen as a stand-alone initiative designed to achieve a specific purpose. And winning is everything.

But there is another perspective which I think is motivating those who are urging a 2010 date.

They do not see a reversal of Proposition 8 in terms of an election. They do not view it as a referendum or really in terms of a campaign at all. They view this effort not in terms of politics and elections but in terms of civil rights and a battle in the war for equality.

While twelvers are wondering about funding and strategy, tenners are focused on momentum, energy, honesty, and courage. Tenners want to win in 10, but find it even more important to not concede defeat. While they think victory is possible next year, they are committed to fighting this battle until it is won, even if that means going to the polls every two years.

And there will be an effort in 2010. I spoke this weekend to a leader with Equality Network (a grassroots organization unaffiliated with any established gay groups), and an application will be submitted to the Secretary of State for a proposition on the ballot in 2010. They will then begin the process of collecting 694,354 valid signatures. Should they (or another tenner group) prove successful at this rather daunting task, then they will have earned the right to establish the date.

Duncan

August 17th, 2009

What I’m afraid of with an effort every two years: it might get the electorate into the habit of voting against it.

David C.

August 17th, 2009

It will be interesting to see if the Courage Campaign’s 200k worth of research will in fact suggest which year is best. I bet objective and dispassionate research would say 2012, but maybe that’s my confirmation bias showing.

Burr

August 17th, 2009

That’s an interesting point about the victory needing to be decisive. After all, if it only passes 51-49 we could see yet another vote in the hate direction (thus proving how patently absurd voting on civil rights is).

Dan

August 17th, 2009

This was not one of your better thought out posts. I don’t know what you mean by conceding defeat. We were defeated. That is a fact. The task now is to undo the defeat. Neither the Tenners nor the Twelvers is accepting the 2008 result as permanent. The only question is how much time is necessary to accomplish the necessary tasks to undo the status quo. So this whole issue of concession is meaningless.

The idea that the “fight” takes place on Election Day is erroneous. The fight actually takes place over the course of months prior to Election Day. The vote itself is just a reflection of the success or failure of of each side’s efforts over the previous months. When we lost in November 2008, it was because of all the strategic and tactical errors that began in May and continued until about mid-October.

We cannot undo this in 15 months. We need 39 months. In not one of those 39 months should we be idle. If we use every month b/t now and November 2012, we will be very busy and we will achieve a durable victory that will not be susceptible to a counter-attack.

Timothy Kincaid

August 17th, 2009

Dan,

Sorry that I wasn’t clear.

My distinction is whether we view these propositions as a battle or as a war. In every state so far, we’ve acted as though they were a war and we lost, went home, and admitted defeat.

In CA, however, there was a reaction, a desire to continue. I believe that Tenners saw this as just a battle and we that we were still fighting.

I think that is the difference in perspective. Twelvers said, “well, we lost that one, we’ll have to try again” and Tenners kept fighting. In West Hollywood (and I assume other parts of the state) signs went up in store windows that say “Repeal Prop 8 in 2010”. There are still “No On Prop 8” signs out in yards.

Dan

August 17th, 2009

OK, I get that distinction. I think I would be more worried if EQCA took the view that we should revisit gay marriage at some indefinite point in the future. That would sound a lot more like accepting defeat. By setting a definite date, they are making it clear that the war is not over.

The key is that the Twelvers actually use the time and prepare relentlessly. 2009-2011 is not “waiting around” time. The blogosphere should be on top of these people to make sure that they are using the time to do the field work, the campaign planning, the fundraising, and the outreach. There is so much to do in such a large state that it really should be a beehive of activity from now until 2012.

We should look for specific milestones for progress during this period. For example, if we don’t start seeing field offices opening up in counties that were completely ignored last time or if we don’t see the campaign cash-on-hand going into the 8-figure range, then we’ll have a good clue that they are blowing it again.

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