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Maine Poll Goes Our Way

Timothy Kincaid

September 29th, 2009

A poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner taken from September 23-27 of 808 registered voters included the following question:

Q.6 Now let me ask something else. One of the questions on the ballot this November will read as follows: “Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?” – If the election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on this question? Total

Yes strongly……………………………………………………………….37
Yes not strongly…………………………………………………………..4
No not strongly……………………………………………………………7
No strongly………………………………………………………………..43
(Don’t know/refused)…………………………………………………….9

Total yes…………………………………………………………………..41
Total no……………………………………………………………………50

Although the structure of the question is confusing, “No” is the answer which we wish to see.

Comments

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Andrew
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

The wording on the question is horrible.

Burr
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

That could have easily confused the people being polled.

The one that DailyKos ran made it clear that a No vote legalizes same-sex marriage and was much closer, 1% in favor of vetoing.

Couple that with the fact that people lie about how tolerant they are in polls and it’s definitely not clear cut.

Burr
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

1% margin in favor of vetoing, that is, to clarify.

Ephilei
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

I was confused too.

Humans are apt to pick the whichever choice comes first, thus Yes is inflated (1-2%?)

Vancity
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

In fact, humans are more likely to vote “NO” when they are confused.

Dan
September 29th, 2009 | LINK

Geez, the comments above are pretty lame by BTB standards. There is no basis to conclude the respondents were confused by this questioning or if they were that the confusion benefited one side or the other. We can’t discount the poll on the basis of speculation about hypothetical confusion.

However, we can and should consider this a 50-50 poll, since we have ample reason to believe that all undecideds are really anti-gay respondents who don’t want to admit it to the pollster. So give all 9% undecideds to the Yes camp.

So 50-50 after accounting for the Bradley effect. Why is this better than the DailyKos poll result? Well for one thing, this poll reads the entire question, including very important language about protecting religious liberty, that was omitted from the Kos poll. That alone could easily account for a shift of a few percentage points. Also, IMO, No on 1 won the past week with their 2-TV ad response to the Yes camp. They had one solid rebuttal ad and one positive ad. The two worked together thematically and took the issue of kids back from the Yes people. Winning the week could also account for some movement in the poll.

Bottom line: This poll is believable and is not pie-in-the-sky. Incidentally, 56% of the respondents to this poll supported Obama last year; he actually won Maine with 58%. So if anything, this poll sample may be slightly skewed against us.

Cole
September 30th, 2009 | LINK

Don’t be fooled. The last poll had only 4% undecided while this last one has 9%. I think EqualityMaine’s ads worked in that they did bring some support to our side at the same time drove some anti-gay people into hiding (behind undecided). We still have a ton of work to do. We still have to phonebank. We still have to talk to Maine residents. We still have to donate to EqualityMaine.
http://tinyurl.com/l4hru8

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