Field Poll: Californians support marriage at pre-8 numbers

Timothy Kincaid

July 20th, 2010

In May 2008, before the onslaught of lies and false arguments that dominated the airwaves over the summer, the California Field poll found that 51% of Californians supported marriage equality. Those who disapproved were 42% and 7% didn’t know.

The numbers dipped in 2009 (49% – 44%), but the latest poll has them back at 2008 levels. All of which are within the margin of error.

This suggests that movement on the marriage issue (according to Field) has stalled. There also appears to be little to no movement over the past two years on the percentage that prefers marriage to civil unions when provided with multiple options: 44% marriage, 34% civil unions, 19% neither.

EZam

July 20th, 2010

I don’t care if most people are for or against equality: civil rights should NEVER be put to a popular vote.

Pender

July 20th, 2010

It doesn’t really suggest that movement on the marriage issue has stalled. Historically the numbers move in our favor from between 1 and 2 percent annually, depending on your assumptions — so 1.5 years’ movement would be within the margin of error.

TampaZeke

July 21st, 2010

Woo hoo, at this rate we should be expect that our gracious masters might consider being so kind as to grant us access to our unalienable rights in ten to twenty years!

Grant

July 21st, 2010

Good news for what it’s worth, but not to pee-pee in the Post Toasties, I think some people when asked in a survey (whether in person or online)about equality issues will tend to answer more in favor of equality, whereas behind the curtain (or in California – in the comfort of one’s home with just the mail-in ballot), when it comes time to vote on rights for gays and lesbians, more will just err on the side of – “well, maybe not”

The so-called Bradley Effect. That’s why I don’t take polls like this to the bank, although any positive movement in public opinion is welcome.

cd

July 22nd, 2010

Grant, the story in polling about gay marriage to date is that the Undecideds are always ‘no’ voters. The deception isn’t greater than that.

Old people are continuing to die in California, I’m sure, which means that the support for gay marriage is going up. Other than that, California is currently hard to poll as accurately as Tim needs. There are just too many people moving around and in bad situations in the state.

Pollsters these days seem to be getting a lot of subtle bad attitude responses that amount to relatively many pollees- maybe 10-15%- claiming that they’re likely to vote (when they’re not really likely to) and a substantial vehement arbitrariness on issues and candidates. That’s what I take from the trouble pollsters are having with their likely voter screens and the generally bouncy variation/high undecideds results they’re peddling lately. Even Field can’t do much when faced with a population that won’t report accurately.

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