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NY Times: 17 states support marriage equality

Timothy Kincaid

August 24th, 2010

The New York Times released a graph in which they claim that 17 states have support for marriage equality at 50% or higher. I think that’s a pipe dream; the polls I’ve seen simply don’t support it.

But, nonetheless, there is value to be found in looking at the progress made in the past decade and a half. And even if their numbers are off by 5 to 10 percent, there are still a sizable number of states that either support equality or soon will.

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Titus
August 24th, 2010 | LINK

It is important to recognize:

(1) There have been several polls conducted in recent months surveying American support for marriage equality. Many of these polls have reported results significantly worse than those used in the New York Times article.

(2) During a marriage referendum, voters’ support for same-sex marriage has regularly lagged behind the polls. See: Maine, California.

(3) The poll was a *national* poll only. The researchers simply extrapolated the results of this poll onto each state. This is not a very scientific approach to polling.

Christopher™
August 24th, 2010 | LINK

I like the little sperms.

daftpunkydavid
August 25th, 2010 | LINK

hey timothy and titus,
while i appreciate your temperate comments, i was wondering if you could point toward studies that support them. i, too, preferring erring on the side of caution, instead of being deluded into thinking the situation is better than it actually is, so i’d appreciate a link or something for corroboration. thanks.

Désirée
August 25th, 2010 | LINK

I do agree that the conclusion of the pollsters is overly optimistic however, what this does show is that the chances of a Constitutional amendment passing are less-than-slim to none.

TampaZeke
August 25th, 2010 | LINK

Regardless of the accuracy of the polls I don’t think ANY poll has shown a decline in, or even a leveling off of, support for marriage equality.

Every poll I’ve seen, even the worst case ones, show marked increase in support for marriage equality in EVERY state and region of the country.

We may quibble over degree of support but we can’t deny the direction.

TampaZeke
August 25th, 2010 | LINK

I agree with the previous comment.

This spells doom for a Federal Marriage Amendment. First, it would take a miracle to get one through the necessary majorities of Congress, and even if it did it would take a considerable period of time to get it to the states. By that time, at the rate that opinions are changing, it would be almost impossible to get the required number of states to ratify it. Especially considering there are people who don’t support marriage equality but would never support a Federal Constitutional Amendment to make it illegal.

Timothy Kincaid
August 25th, 2010 | LINK

DPdavid,

Because it involves 50 states, it would be too cumbersome to link. But if you click the Samples Surveys and Polls tab, that will quickly connect you to coverage of recent polls.

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