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Minnesota poll: anti-equality amendment close

Timothy Kincaid

January 31st, 2012

Public Policy Polling found:

Q2 Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
48% Yes
44% No
8% Not sure

Q3 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
37% Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
34% Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
27% There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship
2% Not sure

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
43% Legal
47% Illegal
10% Not sure

This is not good news. Generally, in marriage polls the undecideds all go to the anti-gay position.



January 31st, 2012 | LINK

One thing that works in our favor is that voters who didn’t answer the question is a NO vote. That usually means a 1 to 2% bump to the NO column. Still 10 months to go to change opinions.

I already threatened my family that if they even think of voting yes – they aren’t invited to our wedding.

January 31st, 2012 | LINK

PPP is usually skewed to the right since they only use landlines.

February 1st, 2012 | LINK

Three things going for us. First is Tim’s point about how a blank ballot counts as a no vote. This may be the only reason we win, if we win.

Second, this is a PPP poll and PPP has been right on the money on gay marriage. They called both CA and ME correctly. So I think that a “don’t know” in a PPP poll is really a “don’t know” and not just a bashful yes vote.

Third, even when considering polls other than PPP, the “don’t knows” who cut to the anti-gay side are the “don’t knows” left at the end of the campaign. The 10% saying they are unsure of their position now are not all going to cut anti-gay.

Tim: I like your style. Make it clear to these people that they can’t screw you over in the voting booth and then expect tea and crumpets from you.

February 1st, 2012 | LINK

The other thing is hardcore politics season just start in Mn. The Legistlature is just back. Minnesota is a causcus state and that is next Tuesday. So more things are in the works.

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