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New SurveyUSA poll good news for Referendum 74

Timothy Kincaid

October 6th, 2012

Per SeattlePI

The poll found Referendum 74, which would make Washington the seventh state to enact marriage equality, leading by a 55-40 percent margin with just 6 percent undecided.

I find generally that with gay marriage polls, the support for equality generally is how the vote comes out with all the undecided votes going against us. So my best guestimate is that if the vote were today (and you can vote absentee today), the results would be close to 55-45 for Referendum 74 and equality would win.



October 6th, 2012 | LINK

JP Masser wrote a comment once where he tracked all the polls and the voting results (I’m simplifying it here) and he said in order to win you have to be ahead by 8 points.

Regan DuCasse
October 7th, 2012 | LINK

I wouldn’t count the chickens just yet. We were sure wrong here in CA.

October 7th, 2012 | LINK

Just to be clear, NO poll in California at this point prior to the election (or in 2009 for Maine) showed results as high as we now are seeing in Washington and Maine.

Remember too that Survey USA has been known to be more conservative. Towards the end of October, 2009 is showed Referendum 71 in Washington winning by only 50/43. It was approved with 53.15% of the vote.

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