Marriage Equality Support Hits 60%

Jim Burroway

May 20th, 2015


As trends go, that’s a the largest one-year jump since 2011, when a majority of Americans supported marriage equality for the first time. We are quickly closing in on the day when twice as many Americans will support marriage equality as those who don’t. When looking at the political affiliation cross-tabs, you can see a very sharp divergence based on party affiliation:



Another trend worth watching this political season:

About a quarter of Americans (26%) say they vote for a political candidate solely based on his or her stance on gay marriage. Many others say it is but one of several important factors (43%). … Those who are opposed to gay marriage are a good deal more likely to say that a candidate’s stance on the issue can make or break whether that candidate receives their vote (37%) than those who are supportive of gay marriage (21%). And both are more likely to say the issue is a defining factor than they have been in the past.

The margin of sampling error is ±5% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys were done with a 50/50 split between landline contacts and cell phone contacts.

Timothy Kincaid

May 20th, 2015

So about 13% of the population will not vote for a candidate that opposes equality and about 14% will not vote for a candidate that supports equality.

(37% of 37% = 14%)
(21% of 60% = 13%)

Statistically the same.

Mark F.

May 20th, 2015

Maggie Gallagher was crowing recently that one poll showed a slight decrease in support for same sex marriage. I suspect that was merely a statistical anomaly, and this confirms my suspicions.


May 20th, 2015

Mark F., I can see it now: “Yay! We are slightly less of a minority than we were yesterday!”

Seriously, though, I have been trying to take polls showing majority support for marriage with a grain of salt ever since the switch happened. Now (accounting for the the error rate of 5%), I can rest assured that we are firmly in “majority support” territory. Anti-gays keep hoping that marriage equality will play out like legal abortion, and legalization will actually decrease support. Of course, they are rarely nuanced about understanding why a trend is happening, or even that people can hold complex, nuanced opinions in the first place (and that, of course, assumes their statistics are actually accurate, since I haven’t seen independent sources on the matter, but that is another debate). The point being, their doomsday prognostications are not playing out, so people have no reason to believe that the joy they see their friends and family experience with full marriage recognition will cause any harm to this nation. Support may take a hit after a SCOTUS ruling, but I think it is safe to say that we will hold majority support.


May 20th, 2015

It’d be nice if pollster’s graphs included the error bars in some fashion. In this graph, you could visualize the underlying (theoretical) distribution of sample values by using “fat lines”, where the further from the center on the line, the more alpha blended it becomes, in proportion to the PDF. For instance, 5% away from the 60 dot would be 95% alpha blended and nearly invisible.

Majority vs. minority debates might not start so easily if the graphs visually showed the uncertainty that makes such inferences invalid. (60% with a 5% margin of error at 95% confidence is pretty hard to argue with though.)


May 21st, 2015

It will be amusing to follow the successful Republican candidate backpedal on gay marriage, because now it seems certain that the current hard-line statements of the primary season will be softened for the general election.

Timothy Kincaid

May 21st, 2015

Nancy, I suspect that will be solved by SCOTUS next month.

“I strongly support the foundation of the family as a man and a woman, but the courts have ruled and we are a nation of laws…”

Leave A Comment

All comments reflect the opinions of commenters only. They are not necessarily those of anyone associated with Box Turtle Bulletin. Comments are subject to our Comments Policy.

(Required, never shared)

PLEASE NOTE: All comments are subject to our Comments Policy.


Latest Posts

The Things You Learn from the Internet

"The Intel On This Wasn't 100 Percent"

From Fake News To Real Bullets: This Is The New Normal

NC Gov McCrory Throws In The Towel

Colorado Store Manager Verbally Attacks "Faggot That Voted For Hillary" In Front of 4-Year-Old Son

Associated Press Updates "Alt-Right" Usage Guide

A Challenge for Blue Bubble Democrats

Baptist Churches in Dallas, Austin Expelled Over LGBT-Affirming Stance

Featured Reports

What Are Little Boys Made Of?

In this original BTB Investigation, we unveil the tragic story of Kirk Murphy, a four-year-old boy who was treated for “cross-gender disturbance” in 1970 by a young grad student by the name of George Rekers. This story is a stark reminder that there are severe and damaging consequences when therapists try to ensure that boys will be boys.

Slouching Towards Kampala: Uganda’s Deadly Embrace of Hate

When we first reported on three American anti-gay activists traveling to Kampala for a three-day conference, we had no idea that it would be the first report of a long string of events leading to a proposal to institute the death penalty for LGBT people. But that is exactly what happened. In this report, we review our collection of more than 500 posts to tell the story of one nation’s embrace of hatred toward gay people. This report will be updated continuously as events continue to unfold. Check here for the latest updates.

Paul Cameron’s World

In 2005, the Southern Poverty Law Center wrote that “[Paul] Cameron’s ‘science’ echoes Nazi Germany.” What the SPLC didn”t know was Cameron doesn’t just “echo” Nazi Germany. He quoted extensively from one of the Final Solution’s architects. This puts his fascination with quarantines, mandatory tattoos, and extermination being a “plausible idea” in a whole new and deeply disturbing light.

From the Inside: Focus on the Family’s “Love Won Out”

On February 10, I attended an all-day “Love Won Out” ex-gay conference in Phoenix, put on by Focus on the Family and Exodus International. In this series of reports, I talk about what I learned there: the people who go to these conferences, the things that they hear, and what this all means for them, their families and for the rest of us.

Prologue: Why I Went To “Love Won Out”
Part 1: What’s Love Got To Do With It?
Part 2: Parents Struggle With “No Exceptions”
Part 3: A Whole New Dialect
Part 4: It Depends On How The Meaning of the Word "Change" Changes
Part 5: A Candid Explanation For "Change"

The Heterosexual Agenda: Exposing The Myths

At last, the truth can now be told.

Using the same research methods employed by most anti-gay political pressure groups, we examine the statistics and the case studies that dispel many of the myths about heterosexuality. Download your copy today!

And don‘t miss our companion report, How To Write An Anti-Gay Tract In Fifteen Easy Steps.

Testing The Premise: Are Gays A Threat To Our Children?

Anti-gay activists often charge that gay men and women pose a threat to children. In this report, we explore the supposed connection between homosexuality and child sexual abuse, the conclusions reached by the most knowledgeable professionals in the field, and how anti-gay activists continue to ignore their findings. This has tremendous consequences, not just for gay men and women, but more importantly for the safety of all our children.

Straight From The Source: What the “Dutch Study” Really Says About Gay Couples

Anti-gay activists often cite the “Dutch Study” to claim that gay unions last only about 1½ years and that the these men have an average of eight additional partners per year outside of their steady relationship. In this report, we will take you step by step into the study to see whether the claims are true.

The FRC’s Briefs Are Showing

Tony Perkins’ Family Research Council submitted an Amicus Brief to the Maryland Court of Appeals as that court prepared to consider the issue of gay marriage. We examine just one small section of that brief to reveal the junk science and fraudulent claims of the Family “Research” Council.

Daniel Fetty Doesn’t Count

Daniel FettyThe FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics aren’t as complete as they ought to be, and their report for 2004 was no exception. In fact, their most recent report has quite a few glaring holes. Holes big enough for Daniel Fetty to fall through.