May 20th, 2015
As trends go, that’s a the largest one-year jump since 2011, when a majority of Americans supported marriage equality for the first time. We are quickly closing in on the day when twice as many Americans will support marriage equality as those who don’t. When looking at the political affiliation cross-tabs, you can see a very sharp divergence based on party affiliation:
Another trend worth watching this political season:
About a quarter of Americans (26%) say they vote for a political candidate solely based on his or her stance on gay marriage. Many others say it is but one of several important factors (43%). … Those who are opposed to gay marriage are a good deal more likely to say that a candidate’s stance on the issue can make or break whether that candidate receives their vote (37%) than those who are supportive of gay marriage (21%). And both are more likely to say the issue is a defining factor than they have been in the past.
The margin of sampling error is ±5% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys were done with a 50/50 split between landline contacts and cell phone contacts.
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Timothy Kincaid
May 20th, 2015
So about 13% of the population will not vote for a candidate that opposes equality and about 14% will not vote for a candidate that supports equality.
(37% of 37% = 14%)
(21% of 60% = 13%)
Statistically the same.
Mark F.
May 20th, 2015
Maggie Gallagher was crowing recently that one poll showed a slight decrease in support for same sex marriage. I suspect that was merely a statistical anomaly, and this confirms my suspicions.
Nathaniel
May 20th, 2015
Mark F., I can see it now: “Yay! We are slightly less of a minority than we were yesterday!”
Seriously, though, I have been trying to take polls showing majority support for marriage with a grain of salt ever since the switch happened. Now (accounting for the the error rate of 5%), I can rest assured that we are firmly in “majority support” territory. Anti-gays keep hoping that marriage equality will play out like legal abortion, and legalization will actually decrease support. Of course, they are rarely nuanced about understanding why a trend is happening, or even that people can hold complex, nuanced opinions in the first place (and that, of course, assumes their statistics are actually accurate, since I haven’t seen independent sources on the matter, but that is another debate). The point being, their doomsday prognostications are not playing out, so people have no reason to believe that the joy they see their friends and family experience with full marriage recognition will cause any harm to this nation. Support may take a hit after a SCOTUS ruling, but I think it is safe to say that we will hold majority support.
Josh
May 20th, 2015
It’d be nice if pollster’s graphs included the error bars in some fashion. In this graph, you could visualize the underlying (theoretical) distribution of sample values by using “fat lines”, where the further from the center on the line, the more alpha blended it becomes, in proportion to the PDF. For instance, 5% away from the 60 dot would be 95% alpha blended and nearly invisible.
Majority vs. minority debates might not start so easily if the graphs visually showed the uncertainty that makes such inferences invalid. (60% with a 5% margin of error at 95% confidence is pretty hard to argue with though.)
NancyP
May 21st, 2015
It will be amusing to follow the successful Republican candidate backpedal on gay marriage, because now it seems certain that the current hard-line statements of the primary season will be softened for the general election.
Timothy Kincaid
May 21st, 2015
Nancy, I suspect that will be solved by SCOTUS next month.
“I strongly support the foundation of the family as a man and a woman, but the courts have ruled and we are a nation of laws…”
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