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We’re Almost There

Jim Burroway

April 8th, 2009

Support for same-sex marriage bans has been dipping slowly and steadily over the years, if polls are any indication. On Monday, BTB’s Timothy Kincaid reported on some number crunching by Nate Silver to determine the last year in which such a ban would be supported by a majority in each state. To those who are more visually inclined, the results, according to Silver’s model, looks something like this:

Remember, this model only predicts the last year in which a ban on same-sex marriage would pass if it were brought to a vote. Thirty of these state already have a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, and this model doesn’t predict the ban’s demise for those states. Passing a constitutional amendment and rescinding one that already exists are two completely different things. What’s more, this model can’t predict when marriage equality might actually arrive. Time is on our side, but we still have a lot of very hard work to do.

[Hat tip: JoeMyGod]

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Ephilei
April 9th, 2009 | LINK

The estimate here is that the change in public opinion will be linear. It’s be interesting to see how public opinion changed on past civil rights issues (women’s suffrage, integration, slavery, etc). I’d risk a guess that the change is linear until a critical event (like the Emancipation Proclamation or Brown vs Board of Ed), at which time the change is exponential.

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