I Predict a New Hampshire Decision Today

Timothy Kincaid

May 8th, 2009

Governor Lynch received the New Hampshire marriage bill on Wednesday, the 6th. He has 5 days to respond.

Politicians seeking to minimize a news story love to go to the press on Friday afternoon. Folks tend to be socially engaged on the weekend, and less likely to watch the news. Additionally, the talk shows and news commentaters are off and by the time that Monday rolls around there’s a good chance that their story will have been eclipsed.

Governor Lynch is going to suffer outrage regardless of whether he signs or vetoes this legislation, or even if he just lets it go into effect without his signature. So, if I were him, I’d announce my decision late today.

UPDATE:

It looks like my predition did not come true.

I’m not certain as to the actual deadline for Governor Lynch’s signature. If he does not sign or veto within five days, the bill becomes law. By my count, that will be Tuesday, May 12. However, I’m not completely clear as to whether that includes weekend days and some are suggesting (thanks Bruno) that there may be delay based on procedural requirements.

But in any case, we will know by next week at this time whether New Hampshire will be the sixth state which legally recognizes the right for same-sex couples to marry.

Trevor

May 8th, 2009

I predict that he will veto. The governor of Maine boldy signed his state’s marriage bill into law immediately after it was passed by both houses. NH Governor won’t let it simply lapse into law unsigned. That would be far too detrimental politically. He would have conservatives screaming about how inept he was and gay rights proponents complaining about his “history” of apathy toward civil rights. He will likely veto with the lame excuse that “now is not the right time” or some other B.S. reason.

Pender

May 8th, 2009

I predict that he will sign. His rhetoric changed notably after the bill passed. He stopped saying “between a man and a woman” and started talking about how he wanted to have conversations with NH voters before he made his decision. I think that’s politician code for changing his position.

Bruno

May 8th, 2009

I think he’ll either sign or let it become law, but I’m troubled by the fact there was no immediate decision. But I guess this particular politician is very pragmatic, so who knows what he’s thinking.

If he vetoes, he’ll definitely take a lot of future scrutiny off of Jim Douglas.

cd

May 8th, 2009

I think he’ll let it become law without signing it, though he may sign.

I don’t see it as resistance or a betrayal, it just reflects that real support for SSM legalization in NH is around 45% or slightly higher. There is some electoral risk, not so much for Lynch as for the state legislators involved and more organized political obstruction. It’s only been 2 years of serious Democratic control and efforts at good government so far, with much left to improve. I think that’s what the preciousness and worry is about.

Bruno

May 8th, 2009

BTW I’m reading over on bluehampshire.com that the bill may not even be on his desk yet. There’s a bunch of formalities that go through the bill’s sponsors and the sec. of state, and this normally takes a few days. So he may not be hemming and hawing at all, although if he were going to do something for sure, he could at this point just come out and say what that is.

Richard Rush

May 8th, 2009

As Gilda Radner’s character, Roseanne Rosannadanna, would have said: “Never mind.”

The Lauderdale

May 9th, 2009

I tend to agree with Pender. I figure he’s made his decision (sign it) and just doesn’t want it to look like a snap judgment under pressure. By not signing right away he’s trying to give the impression that he is “thinking, thinking…”

Clancy

May 10th, 2009

Richard,

Gilda Radner’s character who said “Nevermind” was Miss Emily Litella. Roseanne Rosannadanna said, “It’s always something.”

FYI, but apropos anyway.

Richard Rush

May 11th, 2009

Oops….. Never mind.

Dan

May 11th, 2009

It doesn’t look it’s going to happen this week…

http://www.bpnews.net/bpnews.asp?id=30471&ref=BPNews-RSSFeed0511

Bruno

May 11th, 2009

@Dan…it could happen this week, or not. There’s really no timetable on it until the bill hits Lynch’s desk, and that can actually take a really long time if the sponsors and Sec. of State are holding it on purpose. But if it were delivered to his desk tomorrow, there’s nothing to say it wouldn’t be signed (or vetoed) immediately.

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