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Just a Quick Laugh

Rob Tisinai

August 15th, 2012

The National Organization for Marriage is pushing an article in the Washington Examiner, which tells us not to put too much stock in a Maryland poll showing support for marriage equality:

Hart Research Associates recently reported a big polling shift toward support for same-sex marriage in Maryland, 54 percent to 40 percent.

Gleeful bloggers and news editors from Maryland Juice to the New York Times created celebratory headlines.

But it may be too early for media’s same-sex marriage proponents to start popping champagne corks.

Last spring, just prior to a similar vote in North Carolina, highly regarded Public Policy Polling [PPP] reported 55 percent – 41 percent in favor. Same sex marriage went down in flames there, 61 percent to 39 percent — a huge 16 point discrepancy between polling and balloting.

Wow — you mean polling had support for marriage equality at 55%, but actually voting only came to 39%? What an embarrassment…

…for the Washington Examiner. PPP’s 55% polling figure represented opposition to marriage equality. Yes, there’s still a difference when it comes to the actual vote, but there’s no “huge 16 point discrepancy.” Looks like they’ll need to find a new way of dismissing the recent Maryland poll.

Look, everyone can make a mistake. This is just a delightfully dumb one, compounded by the credulous editors at NOM who apparently don’t bother to check the accuracy of the information they pass on.

BTW — NOM is using the article to decry misleading polls, which is hypocrisy on the scale of hilarity.



Timothy Kincaid
August 15th, 2012 | LINK

The way to read marriage polls is to assume that “undecided” is always a vote against equality. So the PPP poll was, in reality, 59% for banning marriage, 41% opposed.

The actual numbers of 61 and 39 are only 2% away and probably withing the statistical margin.

Mark F.
August 15th, 2012 | LINK

Yes, the polling was pretty accurate

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