Third, Y’all

Jim Burroway

March 14th, 2012

My favorite headline of the day came from the Associated Press yesterday morning: “Voting in Alabama, Mississippi could clarify race.” As if. If anything’s clear, it’s that Republican voters don’t want anybody to win the nomination, and it looks like they just might get their way.

AL MS HI
Santorum 35% 33% 25%
Gingrich 29% 31% 11%
Romney 29% 30% 45%
Paul 5% 4% 18%

The man with the money, the candidate with not only every issued covered but every position for each issue, the establishment’s favorite who who came in second in the race for the 2008 nomination and is therefore “next” — that’s who came in third in Alabama and Mississippi. Third! That’s, you know, after second. Ronmey managed to pull in a first place showing in the Hawaii caucuses, and he also captured all nine delegates in the American Samoan caucuses.

In this race, every delegate counts. The delegate count, which is always an approximation, looks like this according to CNN.

Delegates
Romney 489
Santorum 234
Gingrich 139
Paul 66

A total of 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination. It’s hard to see Romney getting there before the convention. According to the CNN count, there are still 1,356 delegates, including superdelegates, up for grabs. Romney needs to win 48% of all the remaining delegates to capture the nomination. The next big prize is Illinois, which if Michigan and Ohio are any indication, means that Romney will probably split that state. Whether its enough to make up for the loss he’s likely to receive in Louisiana and the Missouri caucuses, it’s hard to say. April will be kinder to Romney, with Deleware, Maryland, D.C., New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island coming up, but Santorum is likely to win Pennsylvania. Wisconsin may end up a tie like Ohio. But the primaries go south, literally, in May, with contests in Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas. That will be rough territory for Romney.

The only way he can win is for the superdelegates to step in and throw their weight behind Romney. That is a very real possibility. Romney’s picked up some powerful endorsements in the party, but those endorsement’s haven’t meant much when it comes to votes. Santorum  or Gingrich won despite major establishment endorsements for Romney in Tennessee (Gov. Bill Haslam), Oklahoma (Sen. Tom Coburn), South Carolina (Gov. Nikki Haley), Minnesota (former Gov. Tim Pawlenty) and Kansas (former Sen. Bob Dole)

But as hard is it will be for Romney to wrap up the nomination, it’ll be even harder for anyone else to catch up and surpass him. If Gingrich’s ego were to somehow deflate like a popped balloon and all of his delegates went to Santorum, he’d only increase his haul to 373. (And there’s no way Paul’s giving up his delegates.) In the unlikely event that happens, Santorum would still have to pick up 57% of the delegates outstanding. Without it, he needs to win 67% of those remaining. Gingrich needs to pick up 74% and Paul needs 79%. So it means that when the Republicans hit Tampa this summer, there will still probably be a lot of horse trading going on.

Lynn David

March 14th, 2012

Hate to even think it but should Romney not get a clear majority, it could be that Gingrich (and possibly Paul?) would release his delegates for Santorum. Though you’d think the back-room dealing would seek to annul such an idea.

Ben In Oakland

March 14th, 2012

Romney did well in samoa and Hawaii because of the mormon connection, the same thing that queered it for him in THE SOUTH.

JohnAGJ

March 14th, 2012

As long as Santorum doesn’t get the nomination, that’s all that matters to me in this. Romney is a used car salesman but isn’t the nightmare IMO that Santorum is.

Gene in L.A.

March 14th, 2012

Anyone who wants the President to be re-elected should hope for Santorum or anyone else but Romney to win. None of them would have a chance in the general election. Romney’s the only one who can make it a horse-race.

TwirlyGirly

March 14th, 2012

JohnAGJ wrote:

“As long as Santorum doesn’t get the nomination, that’s all that matters to me in this.”

I agree 100%.

Gene in L.A. wrote:

“Anyone who wants the President to be re-elected should hope for Santorum or anyone else but Romney to win.”

I agree 100%

And therein lies the problem. At this point, it’s a roll of the dice either way. I’m not too fond of having my future, and the future of my country, determined by a roll of the dice.

Both points of view are valid. Santorum is a nightmare, but it’s possible enough people realize this they’ll vote to re-elect President Obama even if they don’t like him, just because they’re scared of Santorum. Or, maybe they really don’t care about – or believe – Santorum will actually do the stuff he’s said he wants to do, and they’ll vote for Santorum anyway.

If Romney gets the nomination, we don’t have to worry about Santorum. But, will those who hate President Obama care enough about marriage equality, abortion rights and birth control to NOT vote for Romney? Not to mention, Romney is snuggling up far too close to the Christian Reconstructionists, and that makes me really nervous.

Who knows? It’s scary either way.

Timothy Kincaid

March 14th, 2012

Yesterday at the post office a man and a Russian immigrant woman were politely debating some issue – I think involving previously soviet states. The one thing they agreed upon was that they strongly supported Romney. As did some woman walking by who overheard and chimed in.

It’s the first time this political season that I’ve heard strangers discuss candidates and, I think, the first time I’ve heard anyone actually enthusiastic about Romney.

mike/

March 14th, 2012

y’all know how funny this really is?

these southern morons in the repug party were so frightened that John F Kennedy would bow to the Vatican when he ran for president they put up one stink after another & pulled out all the stops.

yesterday, they voted for a person who not only is an out-and-out PAPIST but is tied to Opus Dei! an fascist RC organization, if you read about it, that would do anything & everything to reverse the Protestant Revolution!

do they think Frothy’s going to stop at contraception and taking away choice? he’ll take away choices, all right, but not the ones they are thinking of.

get out your hair shirts & cilices, people! you are gonna have to atone big time…

Leave A Comment

All comments reflect the opinions of commenters only. They are not necessarily those of anyone associated with Box Turtle Bulletin. Comments are subject to our Comments Policy.

(Required)
(Required, never shared)

PLEASE NOTE: All comments are subject to our Comments Policy.

 

Latest Posts

Today's Agenda Is Brought To You By...

Today In History, 1956: The Adjustment of Male Overt Homosexuals

Federal Judge Blocks UNC From Enforcing North Carolina's "Bathroom Bill"

Georgia Pastor Who Praised Orlando Shooting Arrested for Child Molestation

Maine's Governor Is the Epitome Of What's Wrong In The Republican Party

Today's Agenda Is Brought To You By...

Today In History, 1970: Protesters March, then Riot in Greenwich Village over Police Harassment

Born On This Day, 1844: Edward Carpenter

Featured Reports

What Are Little Boys Made Of?

In this original BTB Investigation, we unveil the tragic story of Kirk Murphy, a four-year-old boy who was treated for “cross-gender disturbance” in 1970 by a young grad student by the name of George Rekers. This story is a stark reminder that there are severe and damaging consequences when therapists try to ensure that boys will be boys.

Slouching Towards Kampala: Uganda’s Deadly Embrace of Hate

When we first reported on three American anti-gay activists traveling to Kampala for a three-day conference, we had no idea that it would be the first report of a long string of events leading to a proposal to institute the death penalty for LGBT people. But that is exactly what happened. In this report, we review our collection of more than 500 posts to tell the story of one nation’s embrace of hatred toward gay people. This report will be updated continuously as events continue to unfold. Check here for the latest updates.

Paul Cameron’s World

In 2005, the Southern Poverty Law Center wrote that “[Paul] Cameron’s ‘science’ echoes Nazi Germany.” What the SPLC didn”t know was Cameron doesn’t just “echo” Nazi Germany. He quoted extensively from one of the Final Solution’s architects. This puts his fascination with quarantines, mandatory tattoos, and extermination being a “plausible idea” in a whole new and deeply disturbing light.

From the Inside: Focus on the Family’s “Love Won Out”

On February 10, I attended an all-day “Love Won Out” ex-gay conference in Phoenix, put on by Focus on the Family and Exodus International. In this series of reports, I talk about what I learned there: the people who go to these conferences, the things that they hear, and what this all means for them, their families and for the rest of us.

Prologue: Why I Went To “Love Won Out”
Part 1: What’s Love Got To Do With It?
Part 2: Parents Struggle With “No Exceptions”
Part 3: A Whole New Dialect
Part 4: It Depends On How The Meaning of the Word "Change" Changes
Part 5: A Candid Explanation For "Change"

The Heterosexual Agenda: Exposing The Myths

At last, the truth can now be told.

Using the same research methods employed by most anti-gay political pressure groups, we examine the statistics and the case studies that dispel many of the myths about heterosexuality. Download your copy today!

And don‘t miss our companion report, How To Write An Anti-Gay Tract In Fifteen Easy Steps.

Testing The Premise: Are Gays A Threat To Our Children?

Anti-gay activists often charge that gay men and women pose a threat to children. In this report, we explore the supposed connection between homosexuality and child sexual abuse, the conclusions reached by the most knowledgeable professionals in the field, and how anti-gay activists continue to ignore their findings. This has tremendous consequences, not just for gay men and women, but more importantly for the safety of all our children.

Straight From The Source: What the “Dutch Study” Really Says About Gay Couples

Anti-gay activists often cite the “Dutch Study” to claim that gay unions last only about 1½ years and that the these men have an average of eight additional partners per year outside of their steady relationship. In this report, we will take you step by step into the study to see whether the claims are true.

The FRC’s Briefs Are Showing

Tony Perkins’ Family Research Council submitted an Amicus Brief to the Maryland Court of Appeals as that court prepared to consider the issue of gay marriage. We examine just one small section of that brief to reveal the junk science and fraudulent claims of the Family “Research” Council.

Daniel Fetty Doesn’t Count

Daniel FettyThe FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics aren’t as complete as they ought to be, and their report for 2004 was no exception. In fact, their most recent report has quite a few glaring holes. Holes big enough for Daniel Fetty to fall through.